France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by topping the latest FIFA rankings after a dominant UEFA qualifying campaign and a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil in late March, showcasing Kylian Mbappé's form amid a favorable Group I draw alongside Norway, Senegal, and Iraq. Spain trails closely at 15.3%, leveraging Euro 2024 success and a manageable Group H with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, while England's 11.1% reflects steady progress despite a tricky Group L featuring Croatia. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field, with all major contenders qualified via play-offs concluded in April, robust squads across Europe and South America, and expanded group stage advancement easing paths to high-stakes knockout rounds where upsets loom amid aging stars like Messi and Ronaldo.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 16.4%
Spanien 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentinien 8.6%
$869,324,520 Vol.
$869,324,520 Vol.
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
16%
Spanien
15%
England
11%
Argentinien
9%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
2%
Japan
2%
Belgien
2%
Marokko
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Türkei
1%
Österreich
1%
Schweden
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Bosnien-Herzegowina
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Tschechien
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
DR Kongo
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 16.4%
Spanien 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentinien 8.6%
$869,324,520 Vol.
$869,324,520 Vol.
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
16%
Spanien
15%
England
11%
Argentinien
9%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
2%
Japan
2%
Belgien
2%
Marokko
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Türkei
1%
Österreich
1%
Schweden
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Bosnien-Herzegowina
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Tschechien
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
DR Kongo
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by topping the latest FIFA rankings after a dominant UEFA qualifying campaign and a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil in late March, showcasing Kylian Mbappé's form amid a favorable Group I draw alongside Norway, Senegal, and Iraq. Spain trails closely at 15.3%, leveraging Euro 2024 success and a manageable Group H with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde, while England's 11.1% reflects steady progress despite a tricky Group L featuring Croatia. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field, with all major contenders qualified via play-offs concluded in April, robust squads across Europe and South America, and expanded group stage advancement easing paths to high-stakes knockout rounds where upsets loom amid aging stars like Messi and Ronaldo.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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