Trader sentiment on further Iranian leadership change hinges on unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from injuries sustained in February US-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Named successor by the Assembly of Experts in March, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with recent New York Times accounts citing sources claiming intensive care, multiple surgeries, and limited communication via notes amid IRGC dominance in decision-making. Iranian officials deny impairments, attributing statements on Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear persistence to him. Stalled US peace talks and potential escalations remain key catalysts for instability or transition before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$11,922,240 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. April
<1%
31. Mai
15%
30. Juni
20%
31. Dezember
41%
$11,922,240 Vol.
30. April
$4,920,969 Vol.
<1%
31. Mai
$1,087,657 Vol.
15%
30. Juni
$672,227 Vol.
20%
31. Dezember
$2,010,465 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on further Iranian leadership change hinges on unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from injuries sustained in February US-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Named successor by the Assembly of Experts in March, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with recent New York Times accounts citing sources claiming intensive care, multiple surgeries, and limited communication via notes amid IRGC dominance in decision-making. Iranian officials deny impairments, attributing statements on Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear persistence to him. Stalled US peace talks and potential escalations remain key catalysts for instability or transition before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volumen
$11,922,240Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on further Iranian leadership change hinges on unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from injuries sustained in February US-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Named successor by the Assembly of Experts in March, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with recent New York Times accounts citing sources claiming intensive care, multiple surgeries, and limited communication via notes amid IRGC dominance in decision-making. Iranian officials deny impairments, attributing statements on Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear persistence to him. Stalled US peace talks and potential escalations remain key catalysts for instability or transition before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,922,240Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on further Iranian leadership change hinges on unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from injuries sustained in February US-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Named successor by the Assembly of Experts in March, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, with recent New York Times accounts citing sources claiming intensive care, multiple surgeries, and limited communication via notes amid IRGC dominance in decision-making. Iranian officials deny impairments, attributing statements on Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear persistence to him. Stalled US peace talks and potential escalations remain key catalysts for instability or transition before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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