Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?
$10,888,982 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
30. April
$3,450,620 Vol.
1%
8. Mai
$34,075 Vol.
9%
15. Mai
$510,499 Vol.
20%
22. Mai
$7,033 Vol.
30%
31. Mai
$1,914,008 Vol.
41%
$10,888,982 Vol.
30. April
$3,450,620 Vol.
1%
8. Mai
$34,075 Vol.
9%
15. Mai
$510,499 Vol.
20%
22. Mai
$7,033 Vol.
30%
31. Mai
$1,914,008 Vol.
41%
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's April 12 announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place following collapsed peace talks with Iran, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a lifting announcement amid escalating economic pressures. Over the past week, U.S. gas prices rose nearly 30 cents to $4.30 per gallon and Brent crude exceeded $126 per barrel, amplifying calls for de-escalation from allies and markets, yet Trump has reaffirmed the blockade as "genius" and vowed continuation until Iran yields on nuclear and missile demands. Iranian President Pezeshkian cited ongoing restraint, but Tehran refuses reopening without U.S. concessions. Traders price just 1% for an announcement by today's April 30 deadline, rising to 42% by May 31, balancing domestic fuel costs against diplomatic stalemate; watch for potential U.S. delegation to Pakistan peace talks or military briefings that could signal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's April 12 announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place following collapsed peace talks with Iran, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a lifting announcement amid escalating economic pressures. Over the past week, U.S. gas prices rose nearly 30 cents to $4.30 per gallon and Brent crude exceeded $126 per barrel, amplifying calls for de-escalation from allies and markets, yet Trump has reaffirmed the blockade as "genius" and vowed continuation until Iran yields on nuclear and missile demands. Iranian President Pezeshkian cited ongoing restraint, but Tehran refuses reopening without U.S. concessions. Traders price just 1% for an announcement by today's April 30 deadline, rising to 42% by May 31, balancing domestic fuel costs against diplomatic stalemate; watch for potential U.S. delegation to Pakistan peace talks or military briefings that could signal shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's April 12 announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place following collapsed peace talks with Iran, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a lifting announcement amid escalating economic pressures. Over the past week, U.S. gas prices rose nearly 30 cents to $4.30 per gallon and Brent crude exceeded $126 per barrel, amplifying calls for de-escalation from allies and markets, yet Trump has reaffirmed the blockade as "genius" and vowed continuation until Iran yields on nuclear and missile demands. Iranian President Pezeshkian cited ongoing restraint, but Tehran refuses reopening without U.S. concessions. Traders price just 1% for an announcement by today's April 30 deadline, rising to 42% by May 31, balancing domestic fuel costs against diplomatic stalemate; watch for potential U.S. delegation to Pakistan peace talks or military briefings that could signal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's April 12 announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place following collapsed peace talks with Iran, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a lifting announcement amid escalating economic pressures. Over the past week, U.S. gas prices rose nearly 30 cents to $4.30 per gallon and Brent crude exceeded $126 per barrel, amplifying calls for de-escalation from allies and markets, yet Trump has reaffirmed the blockade as "genius" and vowed continuation until Iran yields on nuclear and missile demands. Iranian President Pezeshkian cited ongoing restraint, but Tehran refuses reopening without U.S. concessions. Traders price just 1% for an announcement by today's April 30 deadline, rising to 42% by May 31, balancing domestic fuel costs against diplomatic stalemate; watch for potential U.S. delegation to Pakistan peace talks or military briefings that could signal shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
„Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Mai" mit 41%, gefolgt von „22. Mai" mit 30%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 41¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 41% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $10.9 million generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 12, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Der aktuelle Favorit für „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" ist „31. Mai" mit 41%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 41% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „22. Mai" mit 30%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $10.9 million Handelsvolumen bei “Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 41¢ für „31. Mai" im Markt „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 41% sehen, dass „31. Mai" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 41¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 59¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Das geplante Enddatum des Marktes „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" ist verstrichen, aber der Markt wurde noch nicht offiziell aufgelöst. Das Enddatum gibt an, wann das zugrunde liegende Ereignis voraussichtlich eintritt oder erkennbar wird. Der Markt bleibt bis zur formellen Auflösung für den Handel geöffnet. Prüfen Sie den Auflösungsstatus und den Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite für Updates.
Der Markt „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?" hat eine aktive Community mit 266 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Trump kündigt an, dass die US-Blockade von Hormus aufgehoben wird von...?". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
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