France edges Spain in trader consensus at 16.0% and 15.3% implied probabilities to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a razor-thin margin driven by the March 31 completion of qualifiers that saw both nations cruise through unbeaten while England (11.1%) and others like Argentina and Brazil (8.6%) secured spots comfortably. Recent club-season injuries have amplified uncertainty in this hyper-competitive 48-team field: Kylian Mbappé's hamstring strain on April 24 clouds France's attack despite squad depth, mirroring Lamine Yamal's knock that dented Spain's post-Euro 2024 momentum. The bunched top reflects Europe's qualifier dominance, South America's Copa América carryover, and viable paths for dark horses like Norway amid the expanded format's unpredictability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrance 16.0%
Espagne 15.3%
Angleterre 11.1%
Argentine 8.6%
$953,972,468 Vol.
$953,972,468 Vol.
France
16%
Espagne
15%
Angleterre
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
2%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Turquie
1%
Autriche
1%
Suède
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.0%
Espagne 15.3%
Angleterre 11.1%
Argentine 8.6%
$953,972,468 Vol.
$953,972,468 Vol.
France
16%
Espagne
15%
Angleterre
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
2%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Maroc
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Suisse
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Turquie
1%
Autriche
1%
Suède
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France edges Spain in trader consensus at 16.0% and 15.3% implied probabilities to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a razor-thin margin driven by the March 31 completion of qualifiers that saw both nations cruise through unbeaten while England (11.1%) and others like Argentina and Brazil (8.6%) secured spots comfortably. Recent club-season injuries have amplified uncertainty in this hyper-competitive 48-team field: Kylian Mbappé's hamstring strain on April 24 clouds France's attack despite squad depth, mirroring Lamine Yamal's knock that dented Spain's post-Euro 2024 momentum. The bunched top reflects Europe's qualifier dominance, South America's Copa América carryover, and viable paths for dark horses like Norway amid the expanded format's unpredictability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes