A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective from April 17 for an initial 10 days, was extended by three weeks on April 23 following White House talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys, as announced by President Trump to facilitate further negotiations toward a permanent deal. Despite the extension—now running until mid-May—both sides have traded accusations of violations, with Israeli airstrikes killing at least nine in southern Lebanon on April 30 and Hezbollah drone attacks prompting IDF responses. Netanyahu has ordered vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets, while the group deems the truce meaningless; traders watch for escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs, including potential leader-level meetings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?
$22,914,141 Vol.
April 26
100%
$22,914,141 Vol.
April 26
$22,855,772 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective from April 17 for an initial 10 days, was extended by three weeks on April 23 following White House talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys, as announced by President Trump to facilitate further negotiations toward a permanent deal. Despite the extension—now running until mid-May—both sides have traded accusations of violations, with Israeli airstrikes killing at least nine in southern Lebanon on April 30 and Hezbollah drone attacks prompting IDF responses. Netanyahu has ordered vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets, while the group deems the truce meaningless; traders watch for escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs, including potential leader-level meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$22,914,141Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Contesté
Résultat proposé: Yes
Contesté
Révision finale
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective from April 17 for an initial 10 days, was extended by three weeks on April 23 following White House talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys, as announced by President Trump to facilitate further negotiations toward a permanent deal. Despite the extension—now running until mid-May—both sides have traded accusations of violations, with Israeli airstrikes killing at least nine in southern Lebanon on April 30 and Hezbollah drone attacks prompting IDF responses. Netanyahu has ordered vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets, while the group deems the truce meaningless; traders watch for escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs, including potential leader-level meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$22,914,141Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Contesté
Résultat proposé: Yes
Contesté
Révision finale
A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective from April 17 for an initial 10 days, was extended by three weeks on April 23 following White House talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys, as announced by President Trump to facilitate further negotiations toward a permanent deal. Despite the extension—now running until mid-May—both sides have traded accusations of violations, with Israeli airstrikes killing at least nine in southern Lebanon on April 30 and Hezbollah drone attacks prompting IDF responses. Netanyahu has ordered vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets, while the group deems the truce meaningless; traders watch for escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs, including potential leader-level meetings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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