Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 100% "No" that the Iranian regime will not fall by April 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verified collapse indicators despite severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early 2026, interim leadership under figures like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and potential successor Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized succession amid IRGC leadership decapitations from Israeli strikes and a U.S. naval blockade slashing oil revenues by hundreds of millions daily. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests and economic strain persist, but security forces have quashed unrest through mass arrests and executions, with no mass defections or opposition takeover reported as of April 29 Pentagon updates on Iran's oil maneuvers. Realistic late shifts could involve sudden elite fractures or escalated internal revolt, though coercive capacity endures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 avril ?
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 avril ?
Oui
$58,401,866 Vol.
$58,401,866 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
Oui
$58,401,866 Vol.
$58,401,866 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 100% "No" that the Iranian regime will not fall by April 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verified collapse indicators despite severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early 2026, interim leadership under figures like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and potential successor Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized succession amid IRGC leadership decapitations from Israeli strikes and a U.S. naval blockade slashing oil revenues by hundreds of millions daily. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests and economic strain persist, but security forces have quashed unrest through mass arrests and executions, with no mass defections or opposition takeover reported as of April 29 Pentagon updates on Iran's oil maneuvers. Realistic late shifts could involve sudden elite fractures or escalated internal revolt, though coercive capacity endures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volume
$58,401,866Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 100% "No" that the Iranian regime will not fall by April 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verified collapse indicators despite severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early 2026, interim leadership under figures like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and potential successor Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized succession amid IRGC leadership decapitations from Israeli strikes and a U.S. naval blockade slashing oil revenues by hundreds of millions daily. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests and economic strain persist, but security forces have quashed unrest through mass arrests and executions, with no mass defections or opposition takeover reported as of April 29 Pentagon updates on Iran's oil maneuvers. Realistic late shifts could involve sudden elite fractures or escalated internal revolt, though coercive capacity endures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$58,401,866Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 100% "No" that the Iranian regime will not fall by April 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verified collapse indicators despite severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early 2026, interim leadership under figures like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and potential successor Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized succession amid IRGC leadership decapitations from Israeli strikes and a U.S. naval blockade slashing oil revenues by hundreds of millions daily. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests and economic strain persist, but security forces have quashed unrest through mass arrests and executions, with no mass defections or opposition takeover reported as of April 29 Pentagon updates on Iran's oil maneuvers. Realistic late shifts could involve sudden elite fractures or escalated internal revolt, though coercive capacity endures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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