Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's assassination in a February 28 US-Israeli airstrike that also severely injured him with facial disfigurement and leg wounds, has made no public appearances since, fueling persistent rumors of incapacity or IRGC power grabs. Only written statements, including yesterday's defiant Persian Gulf Day message vowing no foreign role in the Strait of Hormuz except "the depths of its waters," have emerged amid a US naval blockade and stalled ceasefire talks hosted by Pakistan. Absent verified health crises, regime fractures, or escalation forcing exile, his continued domestic signaling sustains trader consensus against near-term departure, though upcoming negotiations could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,019,089 Vol.
2026/04/30
4月30日
<1%
5月31日
4%
6月30日
7%
$1,019,089 Vol.
4月30日
$309,133 Vol.
<1%
5月31日
$31,525 Vol.
4%
6月30日
$15,954 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's assassination in a February 28 US-Israeli airstrike that also severely injured him with facial disfigurement and leg wounds, has made no public appearances since, fueling persistent rumors of incapacity or IRGC power grabs. Only written statements, including yesterday's defiant Persian Gulf Day message vowing no foreign role in the Strait of Hormuz except "the depths of its waters," have emerged amid a US naval blockade and stalled ceasefire talks hosted by Pakistan. Absent verified health crises, regime fractures, or escalation forcing exile, his continued domestic signaling sustains trader consensus against near-term departure, though upcoming negotiations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
音量
$1,019,089終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's assassination in a February 28 US-Israeli airstrike that also severely injured him with facial disfigurement and leg wounds, has made no public appearances since, fueling persistent rumors of incapacity or IRGC power grabs. Only written statements, including yesterday's defiant Persian Gulf Day message vowing no foreign role in the Strait of Hormuz except "the depths of its waters," have emerged amid a US naval blockade and stalled ceasefire talks hosted by Pakistan. Absent verified health crises, regime fractures, or escalation forcing exile, his continued domestic signaling sustains trader consensus against near-term departure, though upcoming negotiations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,019,089終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's assassination in a February 28 US-Israeli airstrike that also severely injured him with facial disfigurement and leg wounds, has made no public appearances since, fueling persistent rumors of incapacity or IRGC power grabs. Only written statements, including yesterday's defiant Persian Gulf Day message vowing no foreign role in the Strait of Hormuz except "the depths of its waters," have emerged amid a US naval blockade and stalled ceasefire talks hosted by Pakistan. Absent verified health crises, regime fractures, or escalation forcing exile, his continued domestic signaling sustains trader consensus against near-term departure, though upcoming negotiations could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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