Vice President JD Vance's lead in trader consensus at 21.6% stems from recent polls like UMass Lowell's late-March survey showing him topping Gavin Newsom 33%-30% head-to-head, bolstered by his high-profile diplomatic efforts on Iran ceasefire talks and a new book on faith signaling 2028 ambitions, alongside donor outreach reported in mid-April. Newsom trails closely at 17.5% as Democrats' perceived frontrunner amid an open primary field, though California challenges like deficits temper enthusiasm. Marco Rubio's 10.8% reflects GOP positioning via foreign policy contrasts. With 2026 midterms looming, the tight race hinges on midterm outcomes, Trump's potential endorsement, economic trends, and primary endorsements that could widen gaps in this early, speculative market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日The Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%
The Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a slight
White House insiders increasingly view Rubio as a serious 2028 contender due to his foreign policy success and MAGA base appeal
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
Growing admiration within Trump’s circle and among MAGA supporters solidified Rubio’s position as a leading alternative to Vance.
Kamala Harris publicly signals she is "thinking about" running for president again at the National Action Network convention, receiving strong support and standing ovations
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
This explicit and widely reported hint at a 2028 bid marked a significant positive market reaction, reflecting renewed investor confidence in her candidacy.
Coverage highlights AOC's quiet but serious positioning for a 2028 presidential bid amid a tumultuous political environment, enhancing her profile as a potential nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%
This renewed media focus on her potential candidacy aligns with a slight uptick in market
Announcement of Vance’s upcoming book "Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith" intensifies speculation about a 2028 run, as book releases often precede campaigns, causing a modest
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Announcement of Vance’s upcoming book "Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith" intensifies speculation about a 2028 run, as book releases often precede campaigns, causing a modest
Rubio’s prominent role in the Iran conflict elevates his profile as a potential 2028 presidential contender
Marco Rubio rises to 12%4%
His handling of the Iran war and Trump’s informal polling of GOP donors favoring Rubio boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
Newsom’s remarks during a book tour stop in Atlanta, where he emphasized his academic struggles, spark backlash and criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a dip in his
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%2%
Newsom’s remarks during a book tour stop in Atlanta, where he emphasized his academic struggles, spark backlash and criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a dip in his perceived viability
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated that Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028 while defending him against Trump’s “lost his way” comment
Tucker Carlson rises to 2%1%
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated that Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028 while defending him against Trump’s “lost his way” comment
Trump indicates he is "considering" a 2028 run but gives it a "fifty-fifty" chance, maintaining some market interest but no strong momentum
Donald Trump rises to 4%2%
Trump indicates he is "considering" a 2028 run but gives it a "fifty-fifty" chance, maintaining some market interest but no strong momentum
The New York Times reports AOC as an increasingly sought-after leader within the Democratic Party, helping steer it toward a populist, working-class message
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%
Recognition of her growing influence within the party may have contributed to a modest
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Newsom sharply criticizes global leaders and mocks Trump supporters with "kneepads" fundraising merchandise, maintaining high visibility and
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%1%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Newsom sharply criticizes global leaders and mocks Trump supporters with "kneepads" fundraising merchandise, maintaining high visibility and stirring mixed reactions
GOP discussion heats up around Rubio’s role in Venezuela policy under Trump’s administration
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s leadership in complex foreign policy issues raised his stature as a viable 2028 candidate, contributing to.
Market dip coincides with Vance publicly calling a 2028 run "premature" and emphasizing focus on current duties, which tempered enthusiasm and led to a
JD Vance drops to 26%5%
Market dip coincides with Vance publicly calling a 2028 run "premature" and emphasizing focus on current duties, which tempered enthusiasm and led to a
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president and commits the influential conservative group’s support in key early primary states, boosting his profile among
JD Vance rises to 31%3%
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president and commits the influential conservative group’s support in key early primary states, boosting his profile among GOP voters
Reports emerge that Harris is actively laying groundwork for a 2028 White House run, including meeting donors and promoting her memoir "107 Days"
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Media coverage of her political activity and campaign preparations contributed to a modest
Supreme Court oral arguments highlight Vance's likely presidential ambitions, with legal discussions framing him as a probable 2028 candidate, increasing market confidence
JD Vance rises to 31%3%
Supreme Court oral arguments highlight Vance's likely presidential ambitions, with legal discussions framing him as a probable 2028 candidate, increasing market confidence
Trump clearly states he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee, endorsing potential successors like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, reducing his chances
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Trump clearly states he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee, endorsing potential successors like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, reducing his chances
Ted Cruz publicly attacked Tucker Carlson over his opposition to the U.S.
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
missile strike on Iran, calling Carlson “bat‑crap crazy” on foreign policy
Rubio privately tells confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for 2028 and pledges support if Vance runs
Marco Rubio rises to 7%3%
This admission clarified Rubio's position as a loyal party player, which may have stabilized his odds after earlier declines.
Newsom’s Proposition 50 wins in California, transferring redistricting power to Democrats and potentially adding congressional seats, strengthening his position as a top
Gavin Newsom rises to 23%2%
Newsom’s Proposition 50 wins in California, transferring redistricting power to Democrats and potentially adding congressional seats, strengthening his position as a top Democratic contender for 2028
Trump publicly rules out running for vice president in 2028 but says he "would love" a third term, keeping uncertainty alive
Donald Trump rises to 3%1%
Trump publicly rules out running for vice president in 2028 but says he "would love" a third term, keeping uncertainty alive
Ocasio-Cortez appears with Bernie Sanders and Zohran Mamdani at a campaign rally in New York, signaling alignment with influential progressive figures ahead of 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%2%
This public association with prominent progressives likely boosted market optimism, reflected in the
Kamala Harris tells BBC she "possibly" could run for president again, stating "I am not done" and expressing confidence in a future female president
Kamala Harris rises to 3%1%
Her first UK interview gave the strongest indication yet of a potential 2028 run, raising market interest after a period of low
Newsom states in a CBS News interview he will give "serious thought" to a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, signaling openness to candidacy and increasing market
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom states in a CBS News interview he will give "serious thought" to a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, signaling openness to candidacy and increasing market interest
Ocasio-Cortez and her team position her to run for president or U.S. Senate in 2028, spending millions on social media and acquiring supporter lists to expand grassroots fundraising
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%3%
Despite the strategic buildup, uncertainty about her decision may have contributed to a
Gavin Newsom publicly accuses Donald Trump of attempting to rig elections for a third term and announces a special California election to counter GOP redistricting efforts,
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%5%
Gavin Newsom publicly accuses Donald Trump of attempting to rig elections for a third term and announces a special California election to counter GOP redistricting efforts, raising his national profile and energizing speculation about his presidential ambitions
Trump states in an interview he would "probably not" run for a third term in 2028, dampening market enthusiasm
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Trump states in an interview he would "probably not" run for a third term in 2028, dampening market enthusiasm
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026, leaving the door open for a 2028 presidential bid
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
This decision ended speculation about a gubernatorial run and suggested she might focus on a future presidential campaign, slightly boosting market confidence.
Marco Rubio hints at a possible 2028 presidential run while emphasizing focus on current role; praises Vice President JD Vance as a strong potential candidate
Rubio publicly acknowledged the possibility of running in 2028, signaling early interest that kept market attention steady.
Marco Rubio publicly speculates that JD Vance would be a strong Republican nominee for 2028, fueling early market optimism about Vance's candidacy potential
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Marco Rubio publicly speculates that JD Vance would be a strong Republican nominee for 2028, fueling early market optimism about Vance's candidacy potential
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raises $15 million in 2025 and draws massive crowds nationwide, positioning herself as a potential frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
This fundraising success and national visibility solidified AOC's status as a serious contender, supporting early market confidence.
Trump Organization begins selling "Trump 2028" hats, fueling speculation about a third presidential term despite constitutional limits
Donald Trump drops to 3%7%
Trump Organization begins selling "Trump 2028" hats, fueling speculation about a third presidential term despite constitutional limits
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