Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트DMK 85%
ADMK 8.4%
TVK 8.2%
AITC <1%
$19,978,202 거래량
$19,978,202 거래량
2026.04.23
DMK
85%
ADMK
8%
TVK
8%
AITC
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
DMDK
<1%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
인도 국민회의(INC)
<1%
NPEP
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
DMK 85%
ADMK 8.4%
TVK 8.2%
AITC <1%
$19,978,202 거래량
$19,978,202 거래량
2026.04.23
DMK
$282,947 거래량
85%
ADMK
$684,168 거래량
8%
TVK
$826,435 거래량
8%
AITC
$60,023 거래량
<1%
CPI(M)
$54,893 거래량
<1%
DMDK
$25,133 거래량
<1%
BSP
$26,455 거래량
<1%
CPI
$23,075 거래량
<1%
인도 국민회의(INC)
$17,860,006 거래량
<1%
NPEP
$43,578 거래량
<1%
BJP
$63,182 거래량
<1%
NCP
$28,306 거래량
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
마켓 개설일: Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
거래량
$19,978,202종료일
2026.04.23마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
거래량
$19,978,202종료일
2026.04.23마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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