President Trump imposed a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks mediated by Pakistan over uranium enrichment and sanctions, aiming to choke Iran's oil exports and force nuclear concessions. Nearly three weeks in, Trump has rejected Tehran's latest offer to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade and ending hostilities, calling the strategy "genius" and effective amid reports of Iran's economy straining under disrupted shipping. Recent US seizures of Iranian vessels and satellite imagery showing limited Iranian breakthroughs underscore the standoff's persistence, with Trump signaling a prolonged posture despite surging global oil prices and discussions with energy executives on mitigation. No lifting announcement has occurred, and trader consensus reflects low near-term resolution odds absent diplomatic breakthroughs, with potential indirect talks via Pakistan as a key watchpoint.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Continued diplomatic stalemate and absence of any official US statement or Trump social media post about lifting the blockade by May 8 solidify market consensus that the blockade
Continued diplomatic stalemate and absence of any official US statement or Trump social media post about lifting the blockade by May 8 solidify market consensus that the blockade will persist beyond that date
No official US government or military announcement is made to lift the blockade by the deadline, confirming market expectations and resulting in the
April 30 dips to 1%3%
No official US government or military announcement is made to lift the blockade by the deadline, confirming market expectations and resulting in the
US forces continue enforcement actions including seizing Iranian-flagged tankers and authorizing targeting of Iranian fast boats, with no official announcement of lifting the
May 8 drops to 9%6%
US forces continue enforcement actions including seizing Iranian-flagged tankers and authorizing targeting of Iranian fast boats, with no official announcement of lifting the blockade; Iran proposes reopening the strait only if the blockade ends, but the US rejects this, maintaining the blockade status quo
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to prevent regional escalation, but no US government response or lifting announcement occurs, keeping market odds low for a
May 8 dips to 9%1%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to prevent regional escalation, but no US government response or lifting announcement occurs, keeping market odds low for a May 8 lift
Reports confirm no verified US military or government announcement or action escorting commercial vessels through the Strait, indicating the blockade remains firmly in place with
May 8 dips to 9%1%
Reports confirm no verified US military or government announcement or action escorting commercial vessels through the Strait, indicating the blockade remains firmly in place with no signs of imminent lifting
No official US announcement of lifting blockade as May 1 deadline passes
Despite diplomatic signals and ongoing talks, no qualifying public statement from Trump or US officials was made by April 30 or May 1 to indicate lifting the blockade by May 15. The market.
Saudi Arabia urges US to lift blockade amid regional escalation fears
May 15 dips to 20%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly called on the US to lift the blockade to prevent further regional escalation, signaling international pressure on the US. However, no official US announcement followed, and the market.
Reports confirm no official US announcement to lift the blockade by end of April;
May 31 dips to 41%3%
Iran continues to enforce restrictions, and US forces maintain naval presence; market
Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz after conditional reopening fails
May 15 dips to 24%4%
Iran re-closed the Strait on April 18 after briefly reopening it during a ceasefire, citing the US refusal to lift the blockade. This reversal heightened tensions and reduced optimism for a near-term lifting announcement, contributing to a.
Reports confirm no official US government or military announcement lifting the blockade by late April, with stalled diplomacy and ongoing enforcement;
May 22 dips to 28%1%
traders adjust probabilities downward for a May 22 lift announcement, reflected in the market
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the
May 8 plunges to 15%37%
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade and reinforcing the expectation that no announcement will come by May 8
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, rejecting Iran’s conditional reopening proposals;
May 31 dips to 56%2%
diplomatic signals remain tense with no lifting announcement, causing market
Reports confirm President Trump’s directive to prepare for an extended blockade after failed peace talks, with no official indication of lifting, driving the market
April 30 drops to 6%6%
Reports confirm President Trump’s directive to prepare for an extended blockade after failed peace talks, with no official indication of lifting, driving the market
President Trump directs aides to prepare for extended blockade
May 15 jumps to 43%10%
Wall Street Journal and Polymarket summaries reported that Trump instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade after peace talks collapsed, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade. This official preparation for continuation increased the market's perceived probability of no lifting by May 15, causing a.
US forces maintain blockade enforcement amid stalled diplomacy
May 15 jumps to 39%5%
Reports confirmed that the US Navy continued active enforcement of the blockade, including seizing an Iranian-flagged tanker on April 20 and authorizing targeting of Iranian fast boats on April 24. Meanwhile, peace talks remained stalled with no indication of lifting the blockade, supporting a temporary.
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, increasing diplomatic pressure on the US administration;
May 31 drops to 58%6%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, increasing diplomatic pressure on the US administration; market
Iran’s parliamentary speaker warns of new battlefield measures if fighting resumes, while Trump reiterates the blockade will remain until a deal is reached, reinforcing the
April 30 dips to 9%3%
Iran’s parliamentary speaker warns of new battlefield measures if fighting resumes, while Trump reiterates the blockade will remain until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade’s continuation and pushing market odds lower.
President Trump authorizes US Navy targeting of Iranian fast boats, further escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area;
May 22 dips to 26%1%
no official US announcement to lift the blockade is made, reinforcing market expectations that the blockade will continue past May 22.
Trump authorizes Navy targeting of Iranian fast boats, heightening escalation risks and reinforcing the blockade’s persistence, causing another
April 30 drops to 12%8%
Trump authorizes Navy targeting of Iranian fast boats, heightening escalation risks and reinforcing the blockade’s persistence, causing another
US officials indicate that President Trump is preparing for a prolonged blockade, rejecting Iran’s proposal to reopen the strait contingent on lifting sanctions and ending the war;
May 22 dips to 27%3%
Saudi Arabia urges the US to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation. These diplomatic signals underscored low prospects for lifting the blockade soon, maintaining downward pressure on the market.
President Trump unilaterally extends the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely but maintains the blockade;
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran submits a revised peace plan prioritizing reopening the strait and easing the blockade, raising hopes for a future lift and causing market
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, signaling no near-term lifting;
April 30 plunges to 16%15%
this official stance further lowered market odds for lifting by April 30.
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation;
May 31 drops to 60%14%
President Trump authorizes Navy targeting of Iranian fast boats, heightening military tensions and causing market volatility around 60% YES
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship "Touska" attempting to evade the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump publicly announcing the interception and
May 22 jumps to 30%7%
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship "Touska" attempting to evade the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump publicly announcing the interception and emphasizing the blockade’s continuation until a deal is reached. This military action heightened escalation risks and confirmed the blockade’s persistence, suppressing
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation;
April 30 plunges to 31%29%
this military escalation and continued enforcement reduced market confidence in a blockade lift by April 30.
Iran reimposes closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating tensions and disrupting shipping, which contributed to a sharp
April 30 plunges to 38%30%
Iran reimposes closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating tensions and disrupting shipping, which contributed to a sharp market drop as prospects for lifting the blockade dimmed.
Iran reimposes closure of the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it, citing the US refusal to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports;
May 22 plunges to 23%37%
Iranian forces fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and signaling no imminent end to the blockade. This reinforced market skepticism about a near-term lifting of the US blockade.
Iran reverses reopening, re-closes the Strait of Hormuz citing US blockade violations, fires on commercial vessels, and warns of continued restrictions;
May 31 dips to 74%2%
this escalation increases blockade duration expectations, pushing market
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” to commercial vessels during a ten-day ceasefire, temporarily raising hopes for
April 30 surges to 68%18%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” to commercial vessels during a ten-day ceasefire, temporarily raising hopes for de-escalation and causing a brief
Iran announces reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping during a ceasefire with Israel and Lebanon;
May 31 drops to 76%7%
President Trump insists US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, causing market uncertainty and a temporary
US Central Command confirms full enforcement of the blockade, halting all Iranian maritime trade through the strait;
May 31 dips to 82%1%
Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and threatens retaliation, increasing geopolitical risk and sustaining high market odds for blockade continuation
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, aiming to cut off Iranian oil exports and pressure
May 31 surges to 83%35%
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, aiming to cut off Iranian oil exports and pressure Tehran; this sharp escalation raised the probability of a blockade lift later, pushing market
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Islamabad, signaling a firm stance against Iran and initiating
April 30 surges to 49%49%
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Islamabad, signaling a firm stance against Iran and initiating the blockade enforcement. This announcement set the initial market probability near 49% for lifting by April 30.
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