With qualifiers wrapped in late March and groups drawn, trader consensus bunches top probabilities amid injury uncertainties and the expanded 48-team format's volatility. France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability on Kylian Mbappé's club form and Nations League dominance, despite fitness doubts, while Spain (15.3%) mirrors that via Euro champions' cohesion and Yamal's expected recovery from a hamstring tear. England (11.1%) gains from squad depth post-solid UEFA campaign, Argentina (8.6%) rides CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champs, and Brazil (8.6%) rebounds via recent wins despite Rodrygo's absence. Tough group paths and cross-continental travel heighten upset potential for all favorites.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFrança 16.0%
Espanha 15.3%
Inglaterra 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$955,344,405 Vol.
$955,344,405 Vol.
20 jul 2026
França
16%
Espanha
15%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemanha
5%
Holanda
3%
Noruega
2%
Japão
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marrocos
2%
Colômbia
2%
EUA
2%
Uruguai
1%
México
1%
Croácia
1%
Suíça
1%
Equador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Turquia
1%
Áustria
1%
Suécia
1%
Coreia do Sul
<1%
Paraguai
<1%
Costa do Marfim
<1%
Egito
<1%
Argélia
<1%
Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Escócia
<1%
Tunísia
<1%
Chéquia
<1%
Nova Zelândia
<1%
Jordânia
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Gana
<1%
Uzbequistão
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Iraque
<1%
África do Sul
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Catar
<1%
Austrália
<1%
Arábia Saudita
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Irã
<1%
França 16.0%
Espanha 15.3%
Inglaterra 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$955,344,405 Vol.
$955,344,405 Vol.
20 jul 2026
França
$26,589,460 Vol.
16%
Espanha
$18,699,635 Vol.
15%
Inglaterra
$15,048,756 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$16,377,554 Vol.
9%
Brasil
$17,105,048 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$17,178,783 Vol.
7%
Alemanha
$14,474,900 Vol.
5%
Holanda
$16,466,851 Vol.
3%
Noruega
$15,238,758 Vol.
2%
Japão
$18,333,827 Vol.
2%
Bélgica
$14,864,856 Vol.
2%
Marrocos
$18,382,458 Vol.
2%
Colômbia
$13,861,660 Vol.
2%
EUA
$30,874,477 Vol.
2%
Uruguai
$15,360,065 Vol.
1%
México
$16,777,732 Vol.
1%
Croácia
$17,516,173 Vol.
1%
Suíça
$14,235,668 Vol.
1%
Equador
$18,340,195 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$16,377,245 Vol.
1%
Canadá
$24,637,336 Vol.
1%
Turquia
$8,174,076 Vol.
1%
Áustria
$16,830,889 Vol.
1%
Suécia
$8,203,193 Vol.
1%
Coreia do Sul
$21,766,167 Vol.
<1%
Paraguai
$18,005,476 Vol.
<1%
Costa do Marfim
$23,276,537 Vol.
<1%
Egito
$25,303,108 Vol.
<1%
Argélia
$23,201,247 Vol.
<1%
Bósnia-Herzegovina
$12,289,895 Vol.
<1%
Escócia
$16,786,546 Vol.
<1%
Tunísia
$23,703,902 Vol.
<1%
Chéquia
$8,872,423 Vol.
<1%
Nova Zelândia
$29,988,553 Vol.
<1%
Jordânia
$26,981,575 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$36,812,703 Vol.
<1%
Gana
$16,137,123 Vol.
<1%
Uzbequistão
$39,518,545 Vol.
<1%
Panamá
$14,481,449 Vol.
<1%
Iraque
$14,712,110 Vol.
<1%
África do Sul
$25,355,447 Vol.
<1%
RD Congo
$16,367,323 Vol.
<1%
Cabo Verde
$23,914,648 Vol.
<1%
Catar
$26,062,333 Vol.
<1%
Austrália
$22,503,739 Vol.
<1%
Arábia Saudita
$27,347,999 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$16,365,220 Vol.
<1%
Irã
$26,713,225 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With qualifiers wrapped in late March and groups drawn, trader consensus bunches top probabilities amid injury uncertainties and the expanded 48-team format's volatility. France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability on Kylian Mbappé's club form and Nations League dominance, despite fitness doubts, while Spain (15.3%) mirrors that via Euro champions' cohesion and Yamal's expected recovery from a hamstring tear. England (11.1%) gains from squad depth post-solid UEFA campaign, Argentina (8.6%) rides CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champs, and Brazil (8.6%) rebounds via recent wins despite Rodrygo's absence. Tough group paths and cross-continental travel heighten upset potential for all favorites.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$955,344,405Data de Término
20 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With qualifiers wrapped in late March and groups drawn, trader consensus bunches top probabilities amid injury uncertainties and the expanded 48-team format's volatility. France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability on Kylian Mbappé's club form and Nations League dominance, despite fitness doubts, while Spain (15.3%) mirrors that via Euro champions' cohesion and Yamal's expected recovery from a hamstring tear. England (11.1%) gains from squad depth post-solid UEFA campaign, Argentina (8.6%) rides CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champs, and Brazil (8.6%) rebounds via recent wins despite Rodrygo's absence. Tough group paths and cross-continental travel heighten upset potential for all favorites.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$955,344,405Data de Término
20 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With qualifiers wrapped in late March and groups drawn, trader consensus bunches top probabilities amid injury uncertainties and the expanded 48-team format's volatility. France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability on Kylian Mbappé's club form and Nations League dominance, despite fitness doubts, while Spain (15.3%) mirrors that via Euro champions' cohesion and Yamal's expected recovery from a hamstring tear. England (11.1%) gains from squad depth post-solid UEFA campaign, Argentina (8.6%) rides CONMEBOL table-topping 38 points as defending champs, and Brazil (8.6%) rebounds via recent wins despite Rodrygo's absence. Tough group paths and cross-continental travel heighten upset potential for all favorites.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions