Democratic Party of Korea candidate Chong Won-oh leads Polymarket odds at 86% implied probability to win the June 3, 2026 Seoul mayoral election, reflecting trader consensus on his double-digit polling advantages over incumbent People Power Party Mayor Oh Se-hoon (13.5%). Recent surveys, including an MBC poll released April 30 showing Chong at 48% versus Oh's 32% and a KBS poll with 43%-32%, have solidified his edge following candidate confirmations in mid-April. Chong's momentum stems from strong showings in swing districts, party unity after primaries, and pledges targeting housing supply amid rising apartment prices, contrasting Oh's health-focused platform as he seeks a fifth term. With early voting underway soon, national ruling party headwinds and urban voter turnout could influence the closely watched local contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPolls released by a major Korean research institute show Chong Won‑oh leading by double‑digit points, reinforcing market belief that Oh Se‑hoon’s chances are minimal
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 14%6%
Polls released by a major Korean research institute show Chong Won‑oh leading by double‑digit points, reinforcing market belief that Oh Se‑hoon’s chances are minimal
Proposal to appoint Ahn Cheol-soo as co-chair of the People Power Party election steering committee
Ahn Cheol-soo rises to 2%1%
Reports emerged that Ahn was proposed as a co-chair of the PPP's election steering committee, signaling his continued political relevance but not candidacy, causing a slight.
Oh Se‑hoon unveils his campaign team of 12 citizen co‑chairs, but media coverage focuses on the Democratic Party’s aggressive ground game, keeping his probability low
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 8%3%
Oh Se‑hoon unveils his campaign team of 12 citizen co‑chairs, but media coverage focuses on the Democratic Party’s aggressive ground game, keeping his probability low
Oh Se-hoon officially registers as candidate and sets up a fact-finding committee on opponent Chong Won-o's controversies, intensifying the campaign battle but with limited
Oh Se-hoon rises to 14%4%
Oh Se-hoon officially registers as candidate and sets up a fact-finding committee on opponent Chong Won-o's controversies, intensifying the campaign battle but with limited
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest
Chong’s campaign faces opposition scrutiny over controversies, but market confidence remains high due to lack of PPP nominee and Chong’s strong polling
Chong Won-oh dips to 86%2%
Despite attacks on his record and ethics, the opposition’s delayed candidate selection and Chong’s polling advantage kept market odds elevated.
Oh Se‑hoon formally registers as a prospective candidate, launching his campaign and naming a fact‑finding committee to investigate opponent Chong’s alleged corruption, which
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 11%3%
Oh Se‑hoon formally registers as a prospective candidate, launching his campaign and naming a fact‑finding committee to investigate opponent Chong’s alleged corruption, which fails to lift his odds significantly
Polls showed Chong Won-o leading incumbent Oh Se-hoon by over 10 points, confirming Chong’s dominance and the irrelevance of other Democratic candidates like Hong Ihk-pyo in the
Polls showed Chong Won-o leading incumbent Oh Se-hoon by over 10 points, confirming Chong’s dominance and the irrelevance of other Democratic candidates like Hong Ihk-pyo in the mayoral race
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%2%
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds
Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage,
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage, which steadies his
The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling party; the nomination spikes his
People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 14%6%
People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then quick decline
Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest
Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest
Democratic Party officially nominated Chong Won-o as its Seoul mayoral candidate after a competitive primary, effectively ending Hong Ihk-pyo’s chances and solidifying Chong’s
Democratic Party officially nominated Chong Won-o as its Seoul mayoral candidate after a competitive primary, effectively ending Hong Ihk-pyo’s chances and solidifying Chong’s lead in the race
Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor
Han Dong‑hoon dips to 1%4%
Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor
Seo Young-kyo appointed head of Legislation and Judiciary Committee, focusing on reforms
Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%1%
Seo's appointment to a key parliamentary committee signaled a shift away from electoral politics toward legislative work, reinforcing market consensus that her mayoral chances were negligible.
Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, actively campaigned and engaged with voters, but Chong Won-o’s growing profile and endorsements started to dominate media and
Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, actively campaigned and engaged with voters, but Chong Won-o’s growing profile and endorsements started to dominate media and public attention
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview confirming his participation in the PPP primary, but poll data shows Democratic candidate widening the gap
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 14%2%
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview confirming his participation in the PPP primary, but poll data shows Democratic candidate widening the gap
A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%
A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low
Oh Se-hoon peaks at 22% after registering for the People Power Party primary, showing renewed campaign momentum amid party leadership standoff
Oh Se-hoon rises to 22%1%
Oh Se-hoon peaks at 22% after registering for the People Power Party primary, showing renewed campaign momentum amid party leadership standoff
Oh Se‑hoon registers for the PPP primary after a leadership standoff, confirming his candidacy but also highlighting intra‑party tension
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 22%1%
Oh Se‑hoon registers for the PPP primary after a leadership standoff, confirming his candidacy but also highlighting intra‑party tension
Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero
Na Kyung-won dips to 1%3%
Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero
Democratic Party nominates Chong Won‑oh as its mayoral candidate, giving the opposition a clear front‑runner and pulling support away from Oh Se‑hoon
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 26%6%
Democratic Party nominates Chong Won‑oh as its mayoral candidate, giving the opposition a clear front‑runner and pulling support away from Oh Se‑hoon
Oh Se-hoon delays official candidacy declaration, calling for party reforms and leadership changes, creating uncertainty about his campaign strength and causing a
Oh Se-hoon drops to 28%10%
Oh Se-hoon delays official candidacy declaration, calling for party reforms and leadership changes, creating uncertainty about his campaign strength and causing a
Cho Kuk announces progressive policy platform focusing on land reform and public housing ahead of local elections
Cho Kuk rises to 1%1%
Cho Kuk's policy proposals aimed at social reform briefly revived some market interest, but this was insufficient to significantly improve his electoral prospects.
Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism
Na Kyung-won rises to 6%2%
Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism
Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny
Na Kyung-won dips to 4%2%
Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 37%4%
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another
Multiple Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, declared their bids for Seoul mayor, but the crowded field and rising prominence of other candidates like Chong Won-o
Hong Ihk-pyo plunges to 1%49%
Multiple Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, declared their bids for Seoul mayor, but the crowded field and rising prominence of other candidates like Chong Won-o began to overshadow Hong’s campaign
PPP leadership announces internal dispute and delays the party’s official endorsement, creating uncertainty around Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 38%10%
PPP leadership announces internal dispute and delays the party’s official endorsement, creating uncertainty around Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy
Media scrutiny and public doubts about Cho Kuk's political viability persist despite party leadership
Cho Kuk dips to 0%4%
Despite his party leadership, ongoing controversies related to past academic fraud scandals and limited party influence led to a collapse in market confidence, pushing his chances effectively to zero.
Chong Won-o officially declares bid for Seoul mayor, emphasizing administrative experience and alignment with President Lee Jae Myung’s administration
Chong Won-oh surges to 36%17%
Chong announced his candidacy for the June 3 election, positioning himself as a strong contender capable of ending incumbent Oh Se-hoon's tenure, which boosted early market interest.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon registers as a preliminary candidate for Seoul mayor under the People Power Party, signaling his early commitment to the race and boosting initial market
Oh Se-hoon rises to 52%2%
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon registers as a preliminary candidate for Seoul mayor under the People Power Party, signaling his early commitment to the race and boosting initial market confidence
Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future
Na Kyung-won rises to 7%1%
Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future
Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 44%8%
Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his early‑stage positioning
As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial
Na Kyung-won dips to 4%3%
As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial within the party and potentially divisive
Cho Kuk elected leader of the minor Rebuilding Korea Party with 98.6% approval
Cho Kuk rises to 4%2%
At the party's national convention in Cheongju, Cho Kuk was overwhelmingly elected party leader, signaling a political comeback and briefly boosting market confidence in his mayoral chances.
Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising
Na Kyung-won dips to 6%3%
Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising doubts about her candidacy
Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and
Na Kyung-won plunges to 5%45%
Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and signaling a hardline stance
Seo Young-kyo announces bid for Seoul mayor, pledging housing reforms and economic revitalization
Seo Young-kyo plunges to 16%34%
Seo Young-kyo declared her candidacy for Seoul mayor, outlining ambitious plans for housing stability and economic growth, marking her official entry into the race. This announcement initially boosted market interest but was followed by rapid
Cho Kuk returns to politics after presidential pardon and prison release in August 2025
Cho Kuk plunges to 5%44%
Following his pardon by President Lee Jae Myung on August 11, 2025, and release from prison on August 15, Cho Kuk re-entered politics, but ongoing public skepticism and legal restrictions dampened his electoral prospects, causing a sharp market
Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at
Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at this date. No verifiable news found for this date to explain the initial















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