Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?
$10,876,807 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Abril 30
$3,449,964 Vol.
1%
May 8
$33,798 Vol.
9%
May 15
$510,270 Vol.
20%
May 22
$6,923 Vol.
31%
Mayo 31
$1,903,291 Vol.
42%
$10,876,807 Vol.
Abril 30
$3,449,964 Vol.
1%
May 8
$33,798 Vol.
9%
May 15
$510,270 Vol.
20%
May 22
$6,923 Vol.
31%
Mayo 31
$1,903,291 Vol.
42%
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
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Mga Madalas na Tanong
Ang "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 12 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Mayo 31" sa 42%, sinusundan ng "May 22" sa 31%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 42¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.
Sa ngayon, ang "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?" ay naka-generate ng $10.9 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 12, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.
Para mag-trade sa "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?," i-browse ang 12 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.
Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?" ay "Mayo 31" sa 42%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "May 22" sa 31%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.
Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.
Oo. Hindi mo kailangang mag-trade para manatiling informed. Ang pahinang ito ay nagsisilbing live tracker para sa "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?." Nag-a-update ang outcome probabilities sa real-time habang pumasok ang mga bagong trade. Maaari mong i-bookmark ang pahinang ito at tingnan ang comments section para makita kung ano ang sinasabi ng ibang mga trader. Maaari mo ring gamitin ang time-range filters sa chart para makita kung paano nagbago ang odds sa paglipas ng panahon. Isang libre, real-time na bintana ito sa kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.
Ang Polymarket odds ay itinatakda ng mga tunay na trader na naglalagay ng tunay na pera sa kanilang mga paniniwala, na may tendensiyang maglabas ng mga tumpak na prediksiyon. Sa $10.9 million na na-trade sa "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?," pinagsasama-sama ng mga presyong ito ang kolektibong kaalaman at conviction ng libu-libong kalahok — na kadalasang mas mahusay kaysa sa mga poll, expert forecast, at tradisyonal na survey. Ang mga prediction market tulad ng Polymarket ay may malakas na track record ng accuracy, lalo na habang papalapit ang mga event sa kanilang resolution date. Halimbawa, ang Polymarket ay may one month accuracy score na 94%. Para sa pinakabagong stats sa prediction accuracy ng Polymarket, bisitahin ang accuracy page sa Polymarket.
Para ilagay ang iyong unang trade sa "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?," mag-sign up para sa libreng Polymarket account at i-fund ito gamit ang crypto, credit o debit card, o bank transfer. Kapag na-fund na ang iyong account, bumalik sa pahinang ito, piliin ang outcome na gusto mong i-trade, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bago ka sa prediction markets, i-click ang "How it works" link sa itaas ng anumang Polymarket page para sa mabilis na step-by-step walkthrough kung paano gumagana ang trading.
Sa Polymarket, ang presyo ng bawat outcome ay kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Ang presyong 42¢ para sa "Mayo 31" sa "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?" market ay nangangahulugang kolektibong naniniwala ang mga trader na may halos 42% na tsansa na ang "Mayo 31" ang magiging tamang resulta. Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares sa 42¢ at tama ang outcome, makakatanggap ka ng $1.00 per share — isang kita na 58¢ per share. Kung mali, ang mga share na iyon ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.
Ang naka-schedule na end date ng "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?" market ay lumipas na, pero hindi pa opisyal na na-resolve ang market. Ang end date ay nagpapahiwatig kung kailan inaasahang mangyayari o malalaman ang underlying event. Hindi ito ang sandali na hihinto ang trading. Ang market ay nananatiling bukas para sa trading hanggang opisyal na ma-resolve ang outcome sa pamamagitan ng resolution process. Maaari ka pa ring bumili, magbenta, o isara ang iyong posisyon habang pending ang resolution ng market. Tingnan ang resolution status tracker at "Rules" section sa pahinang ito para sa mga update sa resolution timeline.
Ang "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?" market ay may isang aktibong komunidad ng 266 mga komento kung saan nagbabahagi ang mga trader ng kanilang analysis, nag-debate ng mga outcome, at pinag-uusapan ang mga breaking development. Mag-scroll pababa sa comments section sa ibaba para basahin kung ano ang iniisip ng ibang kalahok. Maaari mo ring i-filter ayon sa "Top Holders" para makita kung saan nakaposisyon ang mga pinakamalaking trader ng market, o tingnan ang "Activity" tab para sa real-time feed ng mga trade.
Ang Polymarket ang pinakamalaking prediction market sa mundo, kung saan maaari kang manatiling informed at kumita mula sa iyong kaalaman sa mga real-world events. Bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares sa mga outcome para sa mga paksang mula pulitika at eleksyon hanggang crypto, finance, sports, tech, at kultura, kasama ang mga market tulad ng "Inanunsyo ni Trump ang US blockade ng Hormuz na itinaas ng...?." Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities na sinusuportahan ng financial conviction, na kadalasang nagbibigay ng mas mabilis at mas tumpak na signal kaysa sa mga poll, pundit, o tradisyonal na survey.
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