Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by repeated pretrial detention orders and recent April 2026 rulings delaying his New York state murder trial to September and federal stalking case to January 2027. Overwhelming forensic evidence—including the silencer-equipped pistol matching shell casings from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, plus Mangione's anti-insurance manifesto—has solidified prosecutors' stance against bail, despite his legal team's double jeopardy challenges and failed habeas petitions. His online cult status as an anti-corporate folk hero fuels public buzz but hasn't swayed judges amid heightened security post-jailbreak attempts. Realistic upsets include a surprise bail reversal or charges dismissed on jurisdictional grounds, though historical patterns in high-profile cases suggest prolonged lockdown.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$14,910 Обс.
$14,910 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,910 Обс.
$14,910 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by repeated pretrial detention orders and recent April 2026 rulings delaying his New York state murder trial to September and federal stalking case to January 2027. Overwhelming forensic evidence—including the silencer-equipped pistol matching shell casings from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, plus Mangione's anti-insurance manifesto—has solidified prosecutors' stance against bail, despite his legal team's double jeopardy challenges and failed habeas petitions. His online cult status as an anti-corporate folk hero fuels public buzz but hasn't swayed judges amid heightened security post-jailbreak attempts. Realistic upsets include a surprise bail reversal or charges dismissed on jurisdictional grounds, though historical patterns in high-profile cases suggest prolonged lockdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,910Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by repeated pretrial detention orders and recent April 2026 rulings delaying his New York state murder trial to September and federal stalking case to January 2027. Overwhelming forensic evidence—including the silencer-equipped pistol matching shell casings from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, plus Mangione's anti-insurance manifesto—has solidified prosecutors' stance against bail, despite his legal team's double jeopardy challenges and failed habeas petitions. His online cult status as an anti-corporate folk hero fuels public buzz but hasn't swayed judges amid heightened security post-jailbreak attempts. Realistic upsets include a surprise bail reversal or charges dismissed on jurisdictional grounds, though historical patterns in high-profile cases suggest prolonged lockdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$14,910Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Luigi Mangione remaining in custody through 2026, with "No" at a 96% implied probability, driven by repeated pretrial detention orders and recent April 2026 rulings delaying his New York state murder trial to September and federal stalking case to January 2027. Overwhelming forensic evidence—including the silencer-equipped pistol matching shell casings from UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's killing, plus Mangione's anti-insurance manifesto—has solidified prosecutors' stance against bail, despite his legal team's double jeopardy challenges and failed habeas petitions. His online cult status as an anti-corporate folk hero fuels public buzz but hasn't swayed judges amid heightened security post-jailbreak attempts. Realistic upsets include a surprise bail reversal or charges dismissed on jurisdictional grounds, though historical patterns in high-profile cases suggest prolonged lockdown.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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