Market

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%

With the appeal trial ongoing and no clear indication of a favorable ruling, market sentiment toward Le Pen’s chances declined to near the lowest levels.

Retailleau launches his campaign in Toulouse with a focus on security and conservative policies, attempting to consolidate right-wing voters but facing a crowded field and

Retailleau launches his campaign in Toulouse with a focus on security and conservative policies, attempting to consolidate right-wing voters but facing a crowded field and competition from other right candidates

Philippe adopts a cautious campaign approach, focusing on gradual program unveiling and avoiding overexposure, which stabilizes but slightly lowers market confidence

Édouard Philippe drops to 22%9%

Philippe adopts a cautious campaign approach, focusing on gradual program unveiling and avoiding overexposure, which stabilizes but slightly lowers market confidence

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing her odds down to a new low (no change, but confirms the low level).

LFI officially adopts candidate designation mode, accelerating Mélenchon’s path to nomination without naming him explicitly

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%2%

The party’s adoption of the candidate selection procedure signaled a near-certain nomination of Mélenchon, reinforcing his front-runner status within LFI and clarifying the campaign timeline.

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party

Bruno Retailleau rises to 4%1%

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party tensions and skepticism about his electability

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%4%

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

Polls confirm Philippe's continued rise as the best hope of the centrist bloc, though he remains behind far-right candidate Jordan Bardella, reflecting a mixed but stable market

Polls confirm Philippe's continued rise as the best hope of the centrist bloc, though he remains behind far-right candidate Jordan Bardella, reflecting a mixed but stable market sentiment

French Constitutional Council delays the final ruling on Le Pen’s appeal, re‑opening speculation that Bardella may lose the RN’s nomination;

Jordan Bardella drops to 19%6%

the market falls to its lowest level of the period

Poll data from Elabe places far-right National Rally candidates in the lead, with Attal polling around 18% among centrist candidates, highlighting the uphill battle he faces to

Gabriel Attal rises to 4%2%

Poll data from Elabe places far-right National Rally candidates in the lead, with Attal polling around 18% among centrist candidates, highlighting the uphill battle he faces to consolidate centrist support and challenge the far right

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited

Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%2%

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited broader appeal despite party endorsement

Polls show Gabriel Attal trailing behind other centrist candidates like Edouard Philippe and far-right contenders, with his support dropping to a low of 2%, indicating waning

Gabriel Attal dips to 2%2%

Polls show Gabriel Attal trailing behind other centrist candidates like Edouard Philippe and far-right contenders, with his support dropping to a low of 2%, indicating waning momentum amid stiff competition and legal uncertainties surrounding rivals

Philippe publicly outlines his immigration policy plans for the presidential campaign, signaling readiness to engage on key national issues, which maintained market interest

Édouard Philippe drops to 22%9%

Philippe publicly outlines his immigration policy plans for the presidential campaign, signaling readiness to engage on key national issues, which maintained market interest

Édouard Philippe is reelected mayor of Le Havre in the second round, securing his local mandate and solidifying his presidential candidacy, leading to a sharp market

Édouard Philippe jumps to 31%11%

Édouard Philippe is reelected mayor of Le Havre in the second round, securing his local mandate and solidifying his presidential candidacy, leading to a sharp market

After a strong showing in the first round of the Le Havre municipal elections, Philippe leads significantly, reassuring supporters and stabilizing his presidential prospects

Édouard Philippe rises to 17%3%

After a strong showing in the first round of the Le Havre municipal elections, Philippe leads significantly, reassuring supporters and stabilizing his presidential prospects

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

Marine Le Pen dips to 10%1%

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

Odoxa poll shows Bardella back at 33% first‑round after a successful rally in Marseille, lifting the market to a new short‑term high

Jordan Bardella drops to 21%11%

Odoxa poll shows Bardella back at 33% first‑round after a successful rally in Marseille, lifting the market to a new short‑term high

Retailleau publicly declares his presidential candidacy with a serious campaign launch, aiming to create momentum and a surge in polls;

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%6%

this announcement briefly boosted market confidence

Édouard Philippe wins reelection as mayor of Le Havre, reinforcing his political base and boosting his national profile as a strong candidate against the far right, which

Édouard Philippe rises to 18%4%

Édouard Philippe wins reelection as mayor of Le Havre, reinforcing his political base and boosting his national profile as a strong candidate against the far right, which increased market confidence

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Marine Le Pen dips to 11%2%

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Polls show Bardella maintaining lead over Le Pen in presidential preference amid ongoing legal uncertainty

Marine Le Pen dips to 7%3%

Continued polling favored Bardella, and the unresolved appeal trial kept Le Pen’s candidacy in doubt, pushing her market.

Bardella’s televised interview on TF1 clarifies the party’s stance on immigration, winning a “majority of undecided voters” according to a post‑interview poll;

Jordan Bardella rises to 32%4%

the market rebounds sharply the next day

Odoxa releases a fresh survey showing Bardella slipping to 28% first‑round after a scandal involving alleged misuse of party funds, prompting a rapid

Jordan Bardella dips to 28%3%

Odoxa releases a fresh survey showing Bardella slipping to 28% first‑round after a scandal involving alleged misuse of party funds, prompting a rapid

La France Insoumise adopts internal candidate designation method, effectively confirming Mélenchon as the favored candidate for 2027

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%1%

LFI formalized the process to select its presidential candidate before summer 2026, with party leaders and cadres repeatedly affirming Mélenchon as the best and likely sole candidate, reducing internal uncertainty.

Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial continues amid divided public opinion and rising Bardella popularity

Marine Le Pen dips to 10%4%

As the trial progressed without a clear resolution and Bardella’s popularity remained strong, market confidence in Le Pen’s candidacy waned, reflected in a.

Reports highlight potential US political pressure on French judiciary in Le Pen’s appeal trial

Marine Le Pen drops to 14%6%

Concerns emerged about foreign interference in the trial, complicating the legal process and injecting uncertainty, which led to a partial.

Attal announces he will not seek a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, reflecting political challenges in a fragmented parliament and possibly dampening investor

Gabriel Attal dips to 6%4%

Attal announces he will not seek a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, reflecting political challenges in a fragmented parliament and possibly dampening investor confidence in his presidential prospects

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Marine Le Pen drops to 13%9%

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Marine Le Pen begins appeal trial against embezzlement conviction that bars her from running for office

Marine Le Pen jumps to 20%13%

Le Pen’s appeal trial started, raising hopes she could overturn the ban and run in 2027, causing a sharp increase in her market.

Bardella launches his new book on national identity during a nationwide tour, receiving enthusiastic crowds and media praise;

Jordan Bardella drops to 23%11%

analysts cite the “campaign momentum” as the cause of a short‑term

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Marine Le Pen surges to 22%15%

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Dominique de Villepin publicly urges caution against foreign intervention in Iran during Euronews interview, emphasizing diplomacy over military action;

Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%4%

this media presence reinforces his image as a statesman but does not translate into increased presidential election odds, contributing to minor

Gabriel Attal appointed as France’s youngest-ever and first openly gay Prime Minister by President Emmanuel Macron, signaling a fresh political start and raising his profile as a

Gabriel Attal rises to 10%4%

Gabriel Attal appointed as France’s youngest-ever and first openly gay Prime Minister by President Emmanuel Macron, signaling a fresh political start and raising his profile as a potential 2027 presidential contender

Marine Le Pen attends Brigitte Bardot’s funeral, signaling continued public presence despite legal challenges

Marine Le Pen dips to 7%2%

Le Pen’s attendance at a high-profile funeral kept her in the public eye but did not significantly improve market confidence in her electoral prospects amid her legal issues.

Éric Ciotti wins the internal leadership vote for The Republicans, defeating Retailleau;

this internal party defeat likely weakened Retailleau’s immediate prospects and contributed to early

Follow‑up poll by Odoxa‑Mascaret confirms Bardella’s lead, now at 37% first‑round and 71% second‑round against the left, reinforcing confidence and pushing the

Jordan Bardella dips to 34%2%

Follow‑up poll by Odoxa‑Mascaret confirms Bardella’s lead, now at 37% first‑round and 71% second‑round against the left, reinforcing confidence and pushing the

Mélenchon engages with small business leaders at the 12th Economy Summit to broaden appeal beyond traditional base

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 10%1%

Mélenchon met with small business owners publicly, aiming to soften his image and attract moderate voters concerned about economic issues, marking a strategic shift in his campaign approach.

Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading as favorite for next French presidential election, surpassing Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen dips to 7%3%

A poll by Odoxa indicated Bardella would win the presidency if held immediately, reflecting growing confidence in Bardella over Le Pen due to her legal troubles and diminishing political viability.

Reuters reports the same Odoxa survey, emphasizing Bardella would win “no matter who his opponents” and noting a narrow runoff loss to Philippe in an earlier poll, sparking a

Jordan Bardella rises to 36%2%

Reuters reports the same Odoxa survey, emphasizing Bardella would win “no matter who his opponents” and noting a narrow runoff loss to Philippe in an earlier poll, sparking a sharp market correction

Viral misinformation about government plans for electronic voting sparks controversy;

Gabriel Attal drops to 6%7%

Gabriel Attal publicly denounces manipulation of his statements regarding electronic voting reforms, clarifying the government's position and attempting to contain political fallout

Odoxa poll of 1,000 respondents shows Bardella leading the hypothetical 2027 presidential race with 35‑36% first‑round support, the first time the far‑right tops the field

Jordan Bardella jumps to 34%7%

Odoxa poll of 1,000 respondents shows Bardella leading the hypothetical 2027 presidential race with 35‑36% first‑round support, the first time the far‑right tops the field

Bruno Retailleau officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, emphasizing a new path focused on order, prosperity, and French pride;

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%

this formal declaration marked the start of his campaign and clarified his intentions to the market

Marine Le Pen publicly endorses Jordan Bardella as her potential replacement if her election ban is upheld at appeal

Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%

Le Pen announced she would back Jordan Bardella, president of her party, if her appeal against a ban from running for office fails, signaling uncertainty about her candidacy and shifting support toward Bardella.

Dominique de Villepin announces the launch of a new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens around social justice and republican values, signaling a

Dominique de Villepin plunges to 3%38%

Dominique de Villepin announces the launch of a new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens around social justice and republican values, signaling a formal political comeback but stops short of declaring a presidential run, which likely caused initial market

Jean-Luc Mélenchon prepares for 2027 presidential run with updated program and campaign strategy announced by LFI team

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Following the 2025 municipal elections, Mélenchon’s team accelerated preparations for his 2027 presidential bid, updating his program and planning multiple campaign events, signaling his readiness to run again.

Édouard Philippe officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, positioning himself early as a contender and setting the stage for his campaign

Édouard Philippe rises to 23%2%

Édouard Philippe officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, positioning himself early as a contender and setting the stage for his campaign

Dominique de Villepin tops the list of French people's favorite political figures in an Ifop-Fiducial poll, gaining 51% favorable opinions due to his firm stances on international

Dominique de Villepin tops the list of French people's favorite political figures in an Ifop-Fiducial poll, gaining 51% favorable opinions due to his firm stances on international issues like the Gaza war, signaling renewed public interest and speculation about his political ambitions

Marine Le Pen’s five‑year ban for misuse of EU funds confirmed by a Paris court, positioning Bardella as the de‑facto RN presidential candidate

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

Marine Le Pen’s five‑year ban for misuse of EU funds confirmed by a Paris court, positioning Bardella as the de‑facto RN presidential candidate