Ongoing US-Iran negotiations remain stalled following the collapse of a planned direct diplomatic meeting in Islamabad around April 25-27, 2026, when Iranian officials departed without engaging US envoys led by figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. A fragile ceasefire holds amid the broader conflict, but talks are deadlocked over Iran's nuclear program, uranium stockpiles, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, with President Trump demanding major concessions and extending the truce. Earlier rounds in Oman and Geneva yielded limited progress, fueling trader skepticism on near-term bilateral summits. Potential phone diplomacy or renewed Pakistani mediation could emerge, though escalation risks from proxy actions or oil disruptions loom large before June deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS Defense Secretary Hegseth posts that Iran will pay for supporting Houthi attacks on merchant ships, reinforcing tensions and lowering market confidence in a diplomatic meeting
June 30 dips to 62%2%
US Defense Secretary Hegseth posts that Iran will pay for supporting Houthi attacks on merchant ships, reinforcing tensions and lowering market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by June 30
The US Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical companies linked to Iran and President Trump warns of secondary sanctions on entities buying Iranian oil, hardening US stance and
June 30 drops to 64%5%
The US Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical companies linked to Iran and President Trump warns of secondary sanctions on entities buying Iranian oil, hardening US stance and reducing chances of a meeting
Continued diplomatic stalemate with no official US-Iran in-person meeting;
May 15 drops to 24%6%
market confidence in May 15 meeting probability falls further
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese companies linked to Iran, and Iran cancels a planned May 4 meeting citing “technical reasons,” confirming no diplomatic meeting occurred by April
April 30 dips to 0%1%
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese companies linked to Iran, and Iran cancels a planned May 4 meeting citing “technical reasons,” confirming no diplomatic meeting occurred by April 30
Live CNN update reports US‑senator Lisa Murkowski’s push for a formal authorization of the war, indicating continued military focus and no imminent diplomatic breakthrough
Live CNN update reports US‑senator Lisa Murkowski’s push for a formal authorization of the war, indicating continued military focus and no imminent diplomatic breakthrough
Reports confirmed no direct or indirect US-Iran diplomatic meeting had occurred, with the market bottoming near 6% probability as the May 5 deadline approached
May 5 dips to 6%1%
Reports confirmed no direct or indirect US-Iran diplomatic meeting had occurred, with the market bottoming near 6% probability as the May 5 deadline approached
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels a scheduled May 4 meeting citing a "technical reason," increasing doubts about near-term diplomatic progress
June 30 dips to 62%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels a scheduled May 4 meeting citing a "technical reason," increasing doubts about near-term diplomatic progress
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to
May 5 drops to 9%9%
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to 9% Yes
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a
May 5 dips to 9%1%
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a May 5 diplomatic meeting will not occur
Reports emerge that the US and Iran have not yet met for a second round of talks in Pakistan, but sources suggest the sides are not as far apart as perceived, briefly boosting
June 30 jumps to 80%7%
Reports emerge that the US and Iran have not yet met for a second round of talks in Pakistan, but sources suggest the sides are not as far apart as perceived, briefly boosting optimism
The US sought international support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but faced reluctance from allies to act before hostilities cease, signaling continued stalemate
May 5 drops to 9%9%
The US sought international support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but faced reluctance from allies to act before hostilities cease, signaling continued stalemate
No official or credible reports of any in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting; market
April 29 dips to 0%1%
No official or credible reports of any in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting; market
US pushes for international coalition to reopen Strait of Hormuz;
May 15 drops to 30%7%
Iran’s latest proposal sidelines nuclear talks until conflict formally ends; no direct meeting scheduled
Iranian Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled and that Tehran will convey its positions through Pakistan, confirming the absence of a
May 31 dips to 44%4%
Iranian Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled and that Tehran will convey its positions through Pakistan, confirming the absence of a face‑to‑face diplomatic window
US reviews Iranian proposal delivered via Pakistan;
April 29 drops to 1%5%
no in-person meeting planned soon; Islamabad reopens after lockdown for anticipated talks that never happened
Updates from the US-Israel war on Iran and related regional conflicts highlight ongoing hostilities and uncertainty about diplomatic progress, causing market hesitation
June 30 drops to 73%7%
Updates from the US-Israel war on Iran and related regional conflicts highlight ongoing hostilities and uncertainty about diplomatic progress, causing market hesitation
The Guardian live‑blog notes US‑Trump’s vague comment that “Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate” but offers no concrete plan for an in‑person meeting, reinforcing market
May 31 dips to 40%4%
The Guardian live‑blog notes US‑Trump’s vague comment that “Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate” but offers no concrete plan for an in‑person meeting, reinforcing market doubts
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council meets amid fears of renewed unrest;
May 15 rises to 37%1%
no progress on direct US-Iran diplomacy reported
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the market fell to 18%
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no
May 5 drops to 10%8%
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no imminent in‑person meeting
Iran's foreign ministry condemned US seizures of Iranian-linked tankers as piracy, escalating tensions and reducing chances of a diplomatic breakthrough before May 5
May 5 dips to 18%4%
Iran's foreign ministry condemned US seizures of Iranian-linked tankers as piracy, escalating tensions and reducing chances of a diplomatic breakthrough before May 5
Trump reviewed a new Iranian proposal that would delay nuclear talks until after lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade, but no agreement or meeting was announced, keeping market
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Trump reviewed a new Iranian proposal that would delay nuclear talks until after lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade, but no agreement or meeting was announced, keeping market confidence low
President Trump reviews new Iranian peace proposal remotely;
May 15 drops to 36%7%
Pakistani officials confirm no face-to-face US-Iran talks planned soon; Islamabad lockdown lifted
U.S. President Donald Trump discusses a new Iranian cease‑fire proposal with top national‑security aides, signalling US skepticism and no commitment to an in‑person meeting
May 31 drops to 58%7%
U.S. President Donald Trump discusses a new Iranian cease‑fire proposal with top national‑security aides, signalling US skepticism and no commitment to an in‑person meeting
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hands a “red‑lines” list to Pakistan and tells Russian President Vladimir Putin Tehran will decide on the diplomatic process, underscoring
May 31 drops to 52%6%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hands a “red‑lines” list to Pakistan and tells Russian President Vladimir Putin Tehran will decide on the diplomatic process, underscoring that Iran wants talks only after the Strait of Hormuz is opened
Reuters reports Iran’s latest proposal explicitly postpones any nuclear‑program discussion until the war ends, further reducing expectations of a near‑term US‑Iran summit
May 31 dips to 48%4%
Reuters reports Iran’s latest proposal explicitly postpones any nuclear‑program discussion until the war ends, further reducing expectations of a near‑term US‑Iran summit
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the ongoing war and diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan, signaling continued but slow
June 30 jumps to 76%10%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the ongoing war and diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan, signaling continued but slow diplomatic engagement
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5 summit is unlikely
Iran’s foreign minister visits Moscow and Oman but skips any direct US engagement;
May 5 dips to 25%3%
NPR highlights the absence of any US‑Iran face‑to‑face talks amid rising tensions
Iran’s Araghchi meets Russian President Putin, emphasizing strategic alliances amid stalled US talks;
April 29 drops to 6%5%
no face-to-face US-Iran meeting occurs
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending the
NPR highlighted that despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, there was “no sign of a meeting between Washington and Tehran,” further depressing odds to 25%
May 5 dips to 25%3%
NPR highlighted that despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, there was “no sign of a meeting between Washington and Tehran,” further depressing odds to 25%
The US White House publicly expressed skepticism about the prospects for a deal, citing Iranian inflexibility and internal regime divisions, reinforcing doubts about a diplomatic
May 5 dips to 30%3%
The US White House publicly expressed skepticism about the prospects for a deal, citing Iranian inflexibility and internal regime divisions, reinforcing doubts about a diplomatic meeting
President Trump states Iran sent a “much better” offer after cancellation but it is still insufficient;
April 30 dips to 10%3%
US-Iran peace talks remain stalled with no in-person meeting planned
CNN reported that U.S. officials said a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing market doubts and pushing odds down to 30%
May 5 drops to 30%7%
CNN reported that U.S. officials said a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing market doubts and pushing odds down to 30%
Araghchi meets Omani Sultan and Pakistani mediators discussing conditions including lifting US blockade;
April 29 dips to 11%1%
Trump says Iran’s new offer is “not enough,” talks remain stalled
Araghchi visits Oman and Pakistan to discuss Strait of Hormuz security and war compensation;
May 15 rises to 54%2%
US and Iran remain far apart on nuclear and blockade issues
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further eroding market confidence
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and plans to meet Russian President Putin, showing Iran’s diplomatic efforts continue but not
April 30 dips to 8%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and plans to meet Russian President Putin, showing Iran’s diplomatic efforts continue but not directly with US representatives
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Pakistani mediators in Islamabad to discuss preconditions, including lifting US blockade;
May 15 jumps to 55%6%
no direct US-Iran meeting occurs
President Trump cancels US delegation’s trip to Pakistan citing inadequate Iranian offer and infighting in Iran;
April 30 plunges to 20%41%
Iranian Foreign Ministry confirms no direct US-Iran meeting scheduled, signaling diplomatic deadlock
Iran denies any direct meeting with US planned;
April 29 plunges to 11%51%
Araghchi leaves Pakistan; Trump cancels US envoys’ planned travel to Islamabad, signaling breakdown in direct talks
Iran’s Abbas Araghchi meets Pakistani officials and then travels to Oman, indicating indirect communication rather than direct US-Iran talks
April 30 drops to 13%7%
Iran’s Abbas Araghchi meets Pakistani officials and then travels to Oman, indicating indirect communication rather than direct US-Iran talks
Pakistani mediation efforts to arrange a second round of US-Iran talks failed to produce a meeting, with Iranian officials refusing direct talks with the US delegation, leading to
May 5 plunges to 33%43%
Pakistani mediation efforts to arrange a second round of US-Iran talks failed to produce a meeting, with Iranian officials refusing direct talks with the US delegation, leading to a steep
Reuters confirms Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says no US‑Iran meeting is planned and that the US delegation’s trip was cancelled, reinforcing the diplomatic dead‑lock
May 5 drops to 30%11%
Reuters confirms Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says no US‑Iran meeting is planned and that the US delegation’s trip was cancelled, reinforcing the diplomatic dead‑lock
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to
May 5 plunges to 37%34%
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to 37% Yes
Reports emerged that the US was considering fresh military strikes on Iran to pressure Tehran back to negotiations, causing a volatile market reaction with a sharp drop then
May 5 surges to 71%33%
Reports emerged that the US was considering fresh military strikes on Iran to pressure Tehran back to negotiations, causing a volatile market reaction with a sharp drop then rebound in meeting probability
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani mediators;
April 29 surges to 55%19%
US envoys Witkoff and Kushner prepare to join, raising hopes for talks
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner prepare to travel to Pakistan for new talks;
April 30 surges to 61%21%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad, raising hopes for resumed diplomacy
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Witkoff and Kushner would head to Pakistan “to resume negotiations,” briefly reviving optimism and lifting the
May 5 surges to 71%16%
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Witkoff and Kushner would head to Pakistan “to resume negotiations,” briefly reviving optimism and lifting the
US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff travel to Pakistan for talks with Iranian officials mediated by Pakistan;
May 15 surges to 84%35%
Iran denies planned direct US-Iran meeting, signaling diplomatic impasse
NPR reports that the US “pulls out of peace talks” with Iran, with Trump announcing the cancellation of the Islamabad trip and stating Iran’s offer was “not enough”
May 5 drops to 41%14%
NPR reports that the US “pulls out of peace talks” with Iran, with Trump announcing the cancellation of the Islamabad trip and stating Iran’s offer was “not enough”
Reports emerge of internal Iranian regime divisions and constraints placed on negotiators, undermining prospects for direct talks
April 29 plunges to 36%22%
Reports emerge of internal Iranian regime divisions and constraints placed on negotiators, undermining prospects for direct talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would
May 5 dips to 55%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would convey its positions via Pakistan
US Central Command enforces naval blockade on Iranian ports, increasing tensions and complicating negotiations;
May 15 plunges to 45%26%
Iranian negotiators face internal opposition
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei posted on X that no US‑Iran meeting was planned in Pakistan, signalling a setback and pulling the
May 5 plunges to 55%22%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei posted on X that no US‑Iran meeting was planned in Pakistan, signalling a setback and pulling the
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating
May 5 plunges to 59%16%
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating stance
US officials give Iran a 3-5 day ultimatum to resolve internal disputes before resuming attacks, indicating pressure but no direct meeting
April 29 surges to 58%16%
US officials give Iran a 3-5 day ultimatum to resolve internal disputes before resuming attacks, indicating pressure but no direct meeting
Iranian hardliners publicly criticized any talks with the US, increasing skepticism about imminent diplomatic meetings and contributing to market uncertainty
May 5 drops to 55%8%
Iranian hardliners publicly criticized any talks with the US, increasing skepticism about imminent diplomatic meetings and contributing to market uncertainty
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were scheduled to travel to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran, prompting the
May 5 rises to 77%2%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were scheduled to travel to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran, prompting the
US officials give Iran 3-5 days to resolve internal infighting and engage in negotiations before resuming attacks, reflecting uncertainty and pressure on talks
April 30 plunges to 55%39%
US officials give Iran 3-5 days to resolve internal infighting and engage in negotiations before resuming attacks, reflecting uncertainty and pressure on talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the ongoing war and diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan, highlighting stalled
May 5 plunges to 56%19%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the ongoing war and diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan, highlighting stalled negotiations and Iran's dissatisfaction with US demands
President Trump extends ceasefire with Iran pending submission of Iranian proposal, but underlying diplomatic hurdles remain unresolved, causing market optimism to peak
April 30 surges to 94%34%
President Trump extends ceasefire with Iran pending submission of Iranian proposal, but underlying diplomatic hurdles remain unresolved, causing market optimism to peak
US-Iran two-week ceasefire extension announced amid ongoing uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz;
May 15 drops to 74%5%
no direct diplomatic meeting confirmed
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up to 75% Yes
US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to continue, signaling some hope for talks but no confirmed meeting yet
April 29 dips to 42%4%
US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to continue, signaling some hope for talks but no confirmed meeting yet
US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapse;
April 30 jumps to 71%11%
President Trump announces US Navy blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions and signaling stalled diplomacy
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