Trader consensus strongly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled negotiations after Iran canceled a planned late-April session in Islamabad involving US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran's Foreign Minister recently blamed Washington for talk failures during a Moscow visit three days ago, echoing an April 18 statement that no date is set for the next round. A fragile ceasefire from Operation Epic Fury holds amid nuclear and regional tensions, but Tehran's insistence on indirect channels via Oman and prioritization of regional alliances dims near-term prospects. Upcoming diplomatic signals or ceasefire extensions could shift odds, though historical patterns show persistent gaps on sanctions, nuclear limits, and proxies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於No Meeting before May 11 85%
May 10 5.3%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,292,577 交易量
$1,292,577 交易量
2026-05-10
May 1
<1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
2%
May 6
1%
May 7
1%
May 8
1%
May 9
2%
May 10
5%
No Meeting before May 11
85%
No Meeting before May 11 85%
May 10 5.3%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,292,577 交易量
$1,292,577 交易量
2026-05-10
May 1
$34,028 交易量
<1%
May 2
$29,593 交易量
1%
May 3
$24,381 交易量
1%
May 4
$30,726 交易量
1%
May 5
$27,023 交易量
2%
May 6
$26,168 交易量
1%
May 7
$25,811 交易量
1%
May 8
$23,541 交易量
1%
May 9
$27,202 交易量
2%
May 10
$43,440 交易量
5%
No Meeting before May 11
$375,789 交易量
85%
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled negotiations after Iran canceled a planned late-April session in Islamabad involving US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran's Foreign Minister recently blamed Washington for talk failures during a Moscow visit three days ago, echoing an April 18 statement that no date is set for the next round. A fragile ceasefire from Operation Epic Fury holds amid nuclear and regional tensions, but Tehran's insistence on indirect channels via Oman and prioritization of regional alliances dims near-term prospects. Upcoming diplomatic signals or ceasefire extensions could shift odds, though historical patterns show persistent gaps on sanctions, nuclear limits, and proxies.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
交易量
$1,292,577結束日期
2026-05-10市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled negotiations after Iran canceled a planned late-April session in Islamabad involving US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran's Foreign Minister recently blamed Washington for talk failures during a Moscow visit three days ago, echoing an April 18 statement that no date is set for the next round. A fragile ceasefire from Operation Epic Fury holds amid nuclear and regional tensions, but Tehran's insistence on indirect channels via Oman and prioritization of regional alliances dims near-term prospects. Upcoming diplomatic signals or ceasefire extensions could shift odds, though historical patterns show persistent gaps on sanctions, nuclear limits, and proxies.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,292,577結束日期
2026-05-10市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 84.5%, reflecting stalled negotiations after Iran canceled a planned late-April session in Islamabad involving US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran's Foreign Minister recently blamed Washington for talk failures during a Moscow visit three days ago, echoing an April 18 statement that no date is set for the next round. A fragile ceasefire from Operation Epic Fury holds amid nuclear and regional tensions, but Tehran's insistence on indirect channels via Oman and prioritization of regional alliances dims near-term prospects. Upcoming diplomatic signals or ceasefire extensions could shift odds, though historical patterns show persistent gaps on sanctions, nuclear limits, and proxies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions