Trader consensus prices a 100% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, as the deadline elapsed without collapse following a massive security crackdown that quashed nationwide 2026 protests by late April. Triggered by economic crisis, blackouts, and fallout from the 2025 Twelve-Day War plus 2026 military escalations, the unrest highlighted vulnerabilities but was swiftly contained through internet shutdowns, loyal IRGC forces, and institutional control. This reflects the regime's historical resilience to uprisings, with no fractures in security apparatus or elite defections. Late-breaking diplomatic isolation, intensified sanctions, or proxy setbacks could influence longer-term stability, though this market has resolved "No."
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড৩০ এপ্রিলের মধ্যে কি ইরানী শাসনের পতন ঘটবে?
৩০ এপ্রিলের মধ্যে কি ইরানী শাসনের পতন ঘটবে?
হ্যাঁ
$52,679,377 Vol.
$52,679,377 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$52,679,377 Vol.
$52,679,377 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 100% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, as the deadline elapsed without collapse following a massive security crackdown that quashed nationwide 2026 protests by late April. Triggered by economic crisis, blackouts, and fallout from the 2025 Twelve-Day War plus 2026 military escalations, the unrest highlighted vulnerabilities but was swiftly contained through internet shutdowns, loyal IRGC forces, and institutional control. This reflects the regime's historical resilience to uprisings, with no fractures in security apparatus or elite defections. Late-breaking diplomatic isolation, intensified sanctions, or proxy setbacks could influence longer-term stability, though this market has resolved "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
ভলিউম
$52,679,377শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 100% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, as the deadline elapsed without collapse following a massive security crackdown that quashed nationwide 2026 protests by late April. Triggered by economic crisis, blackouts, and fallout from the 2025 Twelve-Day War plus 2026 military escalations, the unrest highlighted vulnerabilities but was swiftly contained through internet shutdowns, loyal IRGC forces, and institutional control. This reflects the regime's historical resilience to uprisings, with no fractures in security apparatus or elite defections. Late-breaking diplomatic isolation, intensified sanctions, or proxy setbacks could influence longer-term stability, though this market has resolved "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$52,679,851শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 100% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, as the deadline elapsed without collapse following a massive security crackdown that quashed nationwide 2026 protests by late April. Triggered by economic crisis, blackouts, and fallout from the 2025 Twelve-Day War plus 2026 military escalations, the unrest highlighted vulnerabilities but was swiftly contained through internet shutdowns, loyal IRGC forces, and institutional control. This reflects the regime's historical resilience to uprisings, with no fractures in security apparatus or elite defections. Late-breaking diplomatic isolation, intensified sanctions, or proxy setbacks could influence longer-term stability, though this market has resolved "No."
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা