Polymarket traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, signaling sticky inflation that tempers cut expectations. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized data-dependent policy with no urgency for easing, aligning with futures markets pricing a flat rate path near 3.6%. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if labor softens or price pressures reaccelerate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 88%
25 bps decrease 8%
25 bps increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$4,855,332 Vol.
$4,855,332 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
88%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 88%
25 bps decrease 8%
25 bps increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$4,855,332 Vol.
$4,855,332 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$389,431 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$242,799 Vol.
8%
No change
$636,365 Vol.
88%
25 bps increase
$3,217,860 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$368,877 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, signaling sticky inflation that tempers cut expectations. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized data-dependent policy with no urgency for easing, aligning with futures markets pricing a flat rate path near 3.6%. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if labor softens or price pressures reaccelerate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$4,855,332End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, signaling sticky inflation that tempers cut expectations. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized data-dependent policy with no urgency for easing, aligning with futures markets pricing a flat rate path near 3.6%. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if labor softens or price pressures reaccelerate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,855,332End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, easing unemployment to 4.3%, while CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, signaling sticky inflation that tempers cut expectations. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized data-dependent policy with no urgency for easing, aligning with futures markets pricing a flat rate path near 3.6%. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if labor softens or price pressures reaccelerate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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