Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 Thinking variants dominating recent rankings with Elo scores around 1500, showcasing superior reasoning and substance in blind human evaluations that neutralize stylistic biases. Anthropic's aggressive iteration—major Claude 4 updates every two weeks since January 2026—has solidified its competitive edge in core large language model capabilities like coding and agentic tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3 series at 25%. OpenAI's GPT-5.x trails amid delayed rollouts, while xAI and others linger below 3% absent confirmed May launches; watch for pre-deadline benchmarks or surprise releases that could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 72%
Google 25%
xAI 2.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
$121,169 Vol.
$121,169 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
72%
25%
xAI
2%
OpenAI
2%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 25%
xAI 2.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
$121,169 Vol.
$121,169 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$14,753 Vol.
72%
$9,471 Vol.
25%
xAI
$7,830 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$8,951 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$7,343 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$8,473 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$8,321 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$6,146 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$8,362 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$7,289 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$6,159 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$8,207 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$5,977 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$6,385 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$7,500 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 Thinking variants dominating recent rankings with Elo scores around 1500, showcasing superior reasoning and substance in blind human evaluations that neutralize stylistic biases. Anthropic's aggressive iteration—major Claude 4 updates every two weeks since January 2026—has solidified its competitive edge in core large language model capabilities like coding and agentic tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3 series at 25%. OpenAI's GPT-5.x trails amid delayed rollouts, while xAI and others linger below 3% absent confirmed May launches; watch for pre-deadline benchmarks or surprise releases that could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$121,169End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 Thinking variants dominating recent rankings with Elo scores around 1500, showcasing superior reasoning and substance in blind human evaluations that neutralize stylistic biases. Anthropic's aggressive iteration—major Claude 4 updates every two weeks since January 2026—has solidified its competitive edge in core large language model capabilities like coding and agentic tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3 series at 25%. OpenAI's GPT-5.x trails amid delayed rollouts, while xAI and others linger below 3% absent confirmed May launches; watch for pre-deadline benchmarks or surprise releases that could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$121,169End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, propelled by its Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 Thinking variants dominating recent rankings with Elo scores around 1500, showcasing superior reasoning and substance in blind human evaluations that neutralize stylistic biases. Anthropic's aggressive iteration—major Claude 4 updates every two weeks since January 2026—has solidified its competitive edge in core large language model capabilities like coding and agentic tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3 series at 25%. OpenAI's GPT-5.x trails amid delayed rollouts, while xAI and others linger below 3% absent confirmed May launches; watch for pre-deadline benchmarks or surprise releases that could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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