Polymarket traders price a 95% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10, 2026, announcement, reflecting strong consensus after the central bank's April 29 hold at 2.25% amid upside inflation risks. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by gasoline spikes from the Iran conflict and prospective U.S. tariffs, while March employment added modestly with unemployment steady at 6.7% and wage growth at 4.7%. Governor Tiff Macklem signaled small adjustments if forecasts hold, with 2026 GDP projected at 1.2%. A challenge could arise from unexpectedly soft May CPI or sharper labor market weakening, prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 95%
Increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 1.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$13,389 Vol.
$13,389 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
95%
Increase
4%
No change 95%
Increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 1.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$13,389 Vol.
$13,389 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
95%
Increase
4%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 95% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10, 2026, announcement, reflecting strong consensus after the central bank's April 29 hold at 2.25% amid upside inflation risks. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February, driven by gasoline spikes from the Iran conflict and prospective U.S. tariffs, while March employment added modestly with unemployment steady at 6.7% and wage growth at 4.7%. Governor Tiff Macklem signaled small adjustments if forecasts hold, with 2026 GDP projected at 1.2%. A challenge could arise from unexpectedly soft May CPI or sharper labor market weakening, prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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