Trader consensus favors United Russia with 63.5% implied probability for most seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts—winning 198 of 225 in 2021 via administrative resources—despite recent polls showing support eroding to 27–39% amid rising food and utility prices. New People's 29.9% odds stem from its surge to 12–13% in mid-April VCIOM polls, its all-time high positioning it as a fresh alternative amid Kremlin propaganda efforts to bolster United Russia. LDPR and KPRF trail at 5–11% in FOM and VCIOM surveys, with stable low prospects. United Russia extended primaries registration to May 14, signaling campaign intensification in the 450-seat mixed system.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel parti remportera le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?
Quel parti remportera le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?
Russie unie (ER) 64%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL) 29.9%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR) 5.1%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF) 1.0%
$7,036,022 Vol.
$7,036,022 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Russie unie (ER)
64%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL)
30%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR)
5%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF)
1%
Russie juste – Pour la vérité (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Plateforme Civique (PC)
<1%
Russie unie (ER) 64%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL) 29.9%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR) 5.1%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF) 1.0%
$7,036,022 Vol.
$7,036,022 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Russie unie (ER)
$1,969,518 Vol.
64%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL)
$665,454 Vol.
30%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR)
$2,224,361 Vol.
5%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF)
$540,614 Vol.
1%
Russie juste – Pour la vérité (SRZP)
$501,342 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$632,406 Vol.
<1%
Plateforme Civique (PC)
$502,326 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia with 63.5% implied probability for most seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts—winning 198 of 225 in 2021 via administrative resources—despite recent polls showing support eroding to 27–39% amid rising food and utility prices. New People's 29.9% odds stem from its surge to 12–13% in mid-April VCIOM polls, its all-time high positioning it as a fresh alternative amid Kremlin propaganda efforts to bolster United Russia. LDPR and KPRF trail at 5–11% in FOM and VCIOM surveys, with stable low prospects. United Russia extended primaries registration to May 14, signaling campaign intensification in the 450-seat mixed system.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Marché ouvert : Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$7,036,022Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia with 63.5% implied probability for most seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts—winning 198 of 225 in 2021 via administrative resources—despite recent polls showing support eroding to 27–39% amid rising food and utility prices. New People's 29.9% odds stem from its surge to 12–13% in mid-April VCIOM polls, its all-time high positioning it as a fresh alternative amid Kremlin propaganda efforts to bolster United Russia. LDPR and KPRF trail at 5–11% in FOM and VCIOM surveys, with stable low prospects. United Russia extended primaries registration to May 14, signaling campaign intensification in the 450-seat mixed system.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$7,036,022Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors United Russia with 63.5% implied probability for most seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts—winning 198 of 225 in 2021 via administrative resources—despite recent polls showing support eroding to 27–39% amid rising food and utility prices. New People's 29.9% odds stem from its surge to 12–13% in mid-April VCIOM polls, its all-time high positioning it as a fresh alternative amid Kremlin propaganda efforts to bolster United Russia. LDPR and KPRF trail at 5–11% in FOM and VCIOM surveys, with stable low prospects. United Russia extended primaries registration to May 14, signaling campaign intensification in the 450-seat mixed system.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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