Exit polls released April 29 predominantly project the DMK-led alliance, under Chief Minister MK Stalin, to secure a majority in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, with three of four major surveys forecasting its return to power despite high voter turnout on April 23; this trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments, positions DMK at an implied 84.5% probability of emerging as the largest party or forming government ahead of May 4 counting. AIADMK trails at 8.6% amid alliance challenges post-leadership transitions, while actor Vijay's debutant TVK garners 7.9% on disruptive potential in a three-cornered contest, though most polls limit it below majority thresholds. Incumbency advantages and pre-poll surveys underpin DMK's edge, with late discrepancies or regional shifts as key uncertainties.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Tamil Nadu
Vincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Tamil Nadu
DMK 85%
ADMK 8.6%
TVK 7.8%
AITC <1%
$23,423,554 Vol.
$23,423,554 Vol.
23 apr 2026
DMK
85%
ADMK
9%
TVK
8%
AITC
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
DMDK
<1%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
INC
<1%
NPEP
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
DMK 85%
ADMK 8.6%
TVK 7.8%
AITC <1%
$23,423,554 Vol.
$23,423,554 Vol.
23 apr 2026
DMK
$346,092 Vol.
85%
ADMK
$727,579 Vol.
9%
TVK
$1,019,356 Vol.
8%
AITC
$60,031 Vol.
<1%
CPI(M)
$54,901 Vol.
<1%
DMDK
$27,931 Vol.
<1%
BSP
$29,273 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$23,075 Vol.
<1%
INC
$21,000,437 Vol.
<1%
NPEP
$43,578 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$63,182 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$28,306 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Exit polls released April 29 predominantly project the DMK-led alliance, under Chief Minister MK Stalin, to secure a majority in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, with three of four major surveys forecasting its return to power despite high voter turnout on April 23; this trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments, positions DMK at an implied 84.5% probability of emerging as the largest party or forming government ahead of May 4 counting. AIADMK trails at 8.6% amid alliance challenges post-leadership transitions, while actor Vijay's debutant TVK garners 7.9% on disruptive potential in a three-cornered contest, though most polls limit it below majority thresholds. Incumbency advantages and pre-poll surveys underpin DMK's edge, with late discrepancies or regional shifts as key uncertainties.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Volume
$23,423,554Data di fine
23 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Exit polls released April 29 predominantly project the DMK-led alliance, under Chief Minister MK Stalin, to secure a majority in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, with three of four major surveys forecasting its return to power despite high voter turnout on April 23; this trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments, positions DMK at an implied 84.5% probability of emerging as the largest party or forming government ahead of May 4 counting. AIADMK trails at 8.6% amid alliance challenges post-leadership transitions, while actor Vijay's debutant TVK garners 7.9% on disruptive potential in a three-cornered contest, though most polls limit it below majority thresholds. Incumbency advantages and pre-poll surveys underpin DMK's edge, with late discrepancies or regional shifts as key uncertainties.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$23,423,554Data di fine
23 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Exit polls released April 29 predominantly project the DMK-led alliance, under Chief Minister MK Stalin, to secure a majority in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, with three of four major surveys forecasting its return to power despite high voter turnout on April 23; this trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments, positions DMK at an implied 84.5% probability of emerging as the largest party or forming government ahead of May 4 counting. AIADMK trails at 8.6% amid alliance challenges post-leadership transitions, while actor Vijay's debutant TVK garners 7.9% on disruptive potential in a three-cornered contest, though most polls limit it below majority thresholds. Incumbency advantages and pre-poll surveys underpin DMK's edge, with late discrepancies or regional shifts as key uncertainties.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti