Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日DMK 85%
ADMK 8.4%
TVK 8.2%
AITC <1%
$19,978,202 Vol.
$19,978,202 Vol.
2026/04/23
DMK
85%
ADMK
8%
TVK
8%
AITC
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
DMDK
<1%
バフジャン・サマジ党（BSP）
<1%
CPI
<1%
INC
<1%
NPEP
<1%
インド人民党（BJP）
<1%
NCP
<1%
DMK 85%
ADMK 8.4%
TVK 8.2%
AITC <1%
$19,978,202 Vol.
$19,978,202 Vol.
2026/04/23
DMK
$282,947 Vol.
85%
ADMK
$684,168 Vol.
8%
TVK
$826,435 Vol.
8%
AITC
$60,023 Vol.
<1%
CPI(M)
$54,893 Vol.
<1%
DMDK
$25,133 Vol.
<1%
バフジャン・サマジ党（BSP）
$26,455 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$23,075 Vol.
<1%
INC
$17,860,006 Vol.
<1%
NPEP
$43,578 Vol.
<1%
インド人民党（BJP）
$63,182 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$28,306 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
音量
$19,978,202終了日
2026/04/23マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
音量
$19,978,202終了日
2026/04/23マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the most seats following April 23 polling with record 85% turnout, driven by exit polls from P-Marq, People Pulse, Matrize, and Praja Poll projecting 122-168 seats for the alliance amid welfare scheme popularity and stable INDIA bloc ties including Congress and VCK. AIADMK-led NDA at 8.4% and debutant TVK at 8.3% reflect outlier surveys like Axis My India forecasting TVK's 98-120 seats or VoteVibe's narrow AIADMK+ edge, but fragmented opposition vote shares limit their paths to majority in the 234-seat assembly. Counting on May 4 will resolve uncertainties from regional battles in Chennai, Coimbatore, and delta districts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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