Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic at 51% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely per Chatbot Arena leaderboard—reflecting Claude Opus 4.7's late-April release, which claimed top Elo spots around 1504 with standout reasoning (62.7%) and coding gains, trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (2093 score) by a narrow margin. Google's April 22 AI agent tools and Gemini 3.1 advancements (24.5% odds) solidify their frontier lead, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (10.9%) shines in long-context benchmarks like Context Arena (91.7% AUC) but trails on overall Arena Elo due to evaluation lags. The top labs remain within ~50 Elo, with xAI (4.3%) lagging post-Grok updates; watch pre-June releases for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 52%
구글 24%
OpenAI 11.0%
xAI 3.9%
$371,619 거래량
$371,619 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
52%
구글
24%
OpenAI
11%
xAI
4%
DeepSeek
2%
메타
2%
미스트랄
1%
마이크로소프트
1%
아마존
1%
문샷
1%
알리바바
1%
바이트댄스
1%
Z.ai
1%
바이두
1%
미투안
<1%
Anthropic 52%
구글 24%
OpenAI 11.0%
xAI 3.9%
$371,619 거래량
$371,619 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
$8,449 거래량
52%
구글
$5,223 거래량
24%
OpenAI
$33,789 거래량
11%
xAI
$13,545 거래량
4%
DeepSeek
$247,228 거래량
2%
메타
$2,876 거래량
2%
미스트랄
$3,328 거래량
1%
마이크로소프트
$2,063 거래량
1%
아마존
$1,436 거래량
1%
문샷
$3,611 거래량
1%
알리바바
$5,108 거래량
1%
바이트댄스
$2,199 거래량
1%
Z.ai
$7,346 거래량
1%
바이두
$2,728 거래량
1%
미투안
$32,690 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic at 51% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely per Chatbot Arena leaderboard—reflecting Claude Opus 4.7's late-April release, which claimed top Elo spots around 1504 with standout reasoning (62.7%) and coding gains, trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (2093 score) by a narrow margin. Google's April 22 AI agent tools and Gemini 3.1 advancements (24.5% odds) solidify their frontier lead, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (10.9%) shines in long-context benchmarks like Context Arena (91.7% AUC) but trails on overall Arena Elo due to evaluation lags. The top labs remain within ~50 Elo, with xAI (4.3%) lagging post-Grok updates; watch pre-June releases for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$371,619종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic at 51% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely per Chatbot Arena leaderboard—reflecting Claude Opus 4.7's late-April release, which claimed top Elo spots around 1504 with standout reasoning (62.7%) and coding gains, trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (2093 score) by a narrow margin. Google's April 22 AI agent tools and Gemini 3.1 advancements (24.5% odds) solidify their frontier lead, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (10.9%) shines in long-context benchmarks like Context Arena (91.7% AUC) but trails on overall Arena Elo due to evaluation lags. The top labs remain within ~50 Elo, with xAI (4.3%) lagging post-Grok updates; watch pre-June releases for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$371,619종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Anthropic at 51% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely per Chatbot Arena leaderboard—reflecting Claude Opus 4.7's late-April release, which claimed top Elo spots around 1504 with standout reasoning (62.7%) and coding gains, trailing Google's newly crowned Gemini 3.1 Pro (2093 score) by a narrow margin. Google's April 22 AI agent tools and Gemini 3.1 advancements (24.5% odds) solidify their frontier lead, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (10.9%) shines in long-context benchmarks like Context Arena (91.7% AUC) but trails on overall Arena Elo due to evaluation lags. The top labs remain within ~50 Elo, with xAI (4.3%) lagging post-Grok updates; watch pre-June releases for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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