Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, aligning closely with CME FedWatch Tool odds amid the central bank's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. This strong positioning stems from the April 28-29 FOMC decision to hold rates unchanged, Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasizing data-dependent policy with inflation risks tilted higher, and March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the hottest since 2024—coupled with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. Markets have shifted from earlier cut pricing to a "higher for longer" base case, backed by JPMorgan's forecast of steady rates through 2026. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or weakening May jobs data, potentially reviving easing bets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMarket Probability for 25 bps Decrease Hits 3% as Fed's June Meeting Expected to Maintain Rates
25 bps decrease dips to 3%2%
Entering May, the market consensus strongly favored no rate cut in June, reflecting the Fed's ongoing cautious approach and the lack of economic triggers for easing, pushing the 25 bps decrease probability to near historical lows.
Major central banks leave rates unchanged but signal possible hikes soon amid inflation concerns
Global central banks' cautious stance and signals of potential hikes later reinforced the view that the Fed would hold steady in June before any moves.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid divisive 8-4 vote; Powell confirms he will stay on as governor after chairmanship ends
No change rises to 96%3%
The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged for the third straight meeting, despite dissents, and Powell's confirmation to remain on the board solidified market expectations of no change in June.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at April meeting, citing persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market, effectively ruling out near-term rate cuts and pushing down
50+ bps decrease dips to 1%3%
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at April meeting, citing persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market, effectively ruling out near-term rate cuts and pushing down the likelihood of a 50+ bps decrease by June 2026
Reuters reports Fed likely to hold rates steady at April meeting as Powell prepares for possible swan song
No change jumps to 93%5%
Media consensus on a steady rate decision at April's FOMC meeting increased market confidence in no change for June.
Market Nears Lowest Probability for 25 bps Decrease as Fed Signals No Change Expected in Near Term
25 bps decrease dips to 5%4%
By late April, the market had largely.
Kevin Warsh testifies before Senate Banking Committee, denying political pressure to cut rates
No change rises to 88%2%
Warsh's testimony reassured markets about Fed independence and policy stability, bolstering the no change probability.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at April meeting, signals high bar for hikes and cuts amid sticky inflation
25 bps increase dips to 1%4%
The Fed kept rates unchanged in April 2026, with Chair Powell noting the bar for hikes and cuts was high due to persistent inflation and a stable labor market. This diminished expectations for a rate increase in June, pushing the 25 bps increase probability to a low level.
Market Further Lowers Odds for 25 bps Decrease Following Fed's Continued Emphasis on Data Dependency and Inflation Risks
25 bps decrease dips to 9%3%
Mid-March communications and economic reports reinforced the Fed's patient stance, with markets further discounting the likelihood of a rate cut in June, reflecting concerns over inflation persistence and labor market conditions.
Jerome Powell confirms he will step aside as Fed chair but remain on the Board of Governors
No change rises to 86%1%
Powell's announcement provided leadership clarity, reducing uncertainty about future Fed policy and supporting the no change outlook.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady for third consecutive meeting amid geopolitical tensions
No change surges to 85%21%
The FOMC kept rates unchanged citing elevated uncertainty from the US-Israeli conflict and energy.
Federal Reserve minutes show inflation pressures remain elevated and labor market conditions mixed, with markets shifting expectations toward a later and smaller easing path;
50+ bps decrease dips to 4%3%
this reinforced the low probability of a large rate cut by mid-2026
Fed minutes reveal increased probability of rate hikes but median path still expects cuts later in 2026
25 bps increase rises to 5%2%
Minutes from the March 2026 FOMC meeting showed some market-implied increase in the chance of rate hikes early in the year, though the Fed’s own projections still anticipated two 25 bps cuts in 2026. This caused a brief uptick in the 25 bps increase probability.
Market Reacts to Slowing Momentum for Rate Cuts as Fed Signals No Immediate Moves, Probability for 25 bps Decrease Drops Sharply
25 bps decrease plunges to 28%23%
By early March, market sentiment shifted decisively as the Fed's cautious tone persisted, and economic data suggested a slower easing cycle, leading to a sharp decline in the 25 bps decrease probability.
Senate Banking Committee advances Kevin Warsh nomination for Fed chair amid expectations of policy continuity
No change jumps to 64%14%
Warsh's nomination suggested continuity in Fed policy, reducing uncertainty and increasing confidence in a steady rate decision in June.
Fed Officials Reiterate Cautious Stance, Highlighting Longer Path to 2% Inflation Target and Uncertain Economic Outlook
25 bps decrease dips to 33%1%
Further communications from Fed officials reinforced the January pause, emphasizing the complexity of achieving inflation goals and the need for careful monitoring, which kept the market skeptical about near-term rate cuts.
Slight market uptick in probability of a large hike possibly due to renewed concerns about inflation or labor market strength, but overall sentiment remained low for big hikes
50+ bps increase rises to 3%3%
Slight market uptick in probability of a large hike possibly due to renewed concerns about inflation or labor market strength, but overall sentiment remained low for big hikes
Fed holds rates steady amid ongoing economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks
No change rises to 44%1%
The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged reflected concerns over inflation and economic growth, supporting the market view that the June meeting would likely see no change.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75%, Signaling 'Strategic Patience' and Tempering Hopes for Rapid Further Cuts
25 bps decrease drops to 34%10%
The January 28 FOMC meeting marked a pivotal pause after aggressive easing, with Chair Powell emphasizing a patient, data-dependent approach amid moderating inflation and a cooling labor market. This shift caused a significant drop in the 25 bps decrease probability as markets recalibrated expectations.
Release of Fed minutes and economic data showing cautious Fed stance with no imminent rate hikes and persistent inflation concerns, leading to further decline in odds of a 50+ bps
50+ bps increase dips to 0%4%
Release of Fed minutes and economic data showing cautious Fed stance with no imminent rate hikes and persistent inflation concerns, leading to further decline in odds of a 50+ bps hike in June
Fed minutes reveal deep divisions among officials over further rate cuts, with many expecting only one cut next year and some opposing even the December cut due to inflation
50+ bps decrease dips to 10%1%
Fed minutes reveal deep divisions among officials over further rate cuts, with many expecting only one cut next year and some opposing even the December cut due to inflation concerns; the cautious outlook and split dampened market bets on a 50+ bps decrease by June 2026
Fed Chair Jerome Powell states the Fed's next move is unlikely to be a rate hike, reinforcing market expectations of a pause or continued easing rather than large increases
50+ bps increase dips to 0%4%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell states the Fed's next move is unlikely to be a rate hike, reinforcing market expectations of a pause or continued easing rather than large increases
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, signals no rate hikes ahead
25 bps increase plunges to 6%19%
The Fed’s third rate cut in 2025 lowered the target range by 25 bps amid a cooling labor market and elevated inflation. Chair Powell emphasized that a rate hike was not the base case going forward, signaling a pause in tightening and reducing market expectations for increases in 2026.
Fed announces $40 billion Treasury bill purchases to support financial conditions
Alongside the rate cut, the Fed committed to significant Treasury bill purchases starting immediately, aiming to ease money market strains. This move reinforced the dovish stance and lowered the probability of near-term rate hikes.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points to 3.5%-3.75% in Third Consecutive Cut, Signaling a Shift Toward Accommodative Policy Amid Cooling Economy
25 bps decrease drops to 41%9%
The Fed's December 10 rate cut was widely anticipated and marked the third consecutive 25 bps reduction, aiming to support a cooling labor market while battling persistent inflation. The cautious "dot plot" signaling only one more cut in 2026 tempered enthusiasm, causing a drop in the 25 bps decrease probability.
US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady despite political pressure, signaling a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty
No change drops to 43%14%
The Fed maintained rates at 3.5-3.75% despite pressure to cut, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings and causing a drop in "No change" probability as markets digested the stance.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, signaling a slowing pace of rate cuts and a divided committee with some dissenters
50+ bps increase drops to 4%6%
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, signaling a slowing pace of rate cuts and a divided committee with some dissenters preferring to hold rates steady due to inflation concerns; this raised doubts about large hikes in 2026
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote, signaling only one additional cut in 2026 amid concerns about persistent inflation and
50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote, signaling only one additional cut in 2026 amid concerns about persistent inflation and a softening labor market; the hawkish tone and dissent reduced expectations for large rate cuts in 2026
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points to 3.75%-4.00% Amid Deepening Labor Market Concerns
25 bps decrease dips to 40%1%
The October 29 rate cut reflected growing concerns about a weakening labor market and rising downside employment risks, reinforcing expectations for further easing but also highlighting inflation challenges, which kept market sentiment cautious.
Federal Reserve Lowers Rates by 25 Basis Points to 4.00%-4.25%, Signaling Two More Cuts in 2025
25 bps decrease rises to 41%1%
The September 17 cut was the first in a series of easing moves, with the Fed's "dot plot" projecting two additional cuts in 2025, boosting market expectations for continued rate reductions and supporting the 25 bps decrease outcome.
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