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icon for Gdzie rok 2026 znajdzie się wśród najgorętszych lat w historii?
Klimat I Nauka·Science

Gdzie rok 2026 znajdzie się wśród najgorętszych lat w historii?

icon for Gdzie rok 2026 znajdzie się wśród najgorętszych lat w historii?
Klimat I Nauka·Science

Gdzie rok 2026 znajdzie się wśród najgorętszych lat w historii?

2 56%

1 35%

4 4.5%

6 lub niżej 3.9%

Polymarket

$2,712,175 Wol.

2 56%

1 35%

4 4.5%

6 lub niżej 3.9%

Polymarket

$2,712,175 Wol.

1

$435,880 Wol.

35%

2

$305,363 Wol.

56%

3

$400,241 Wol.

3%

4

$400,233 Wol.

4%

5

$714,024 Wol.

1%

6 lub niżej

$456,433 Wol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 34.5% for first, driven by NOAA's April 2026 ENSO update forecasting a 62% likelihood of El Niño emergence by June-August, which typically amplifies global surface air temperatures through enhanced Pacific heat release. Despite a strong but not record-breaking start—January through April 2026 ranking in the top five warmest for each month per Copernicus ERA5 data, with year-to-date fourth overall—persistent record-high ocean heat content and the ongoing anthropogenic warming trend position 2026 to potentially surpass 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest last year) but fall short of 2024's peak. Forecasts from NOAA and Berkeley Earth suggest top-five status is near-certain (98%+), though model uncertainty persists; watch May's ENSO diagnostic and monthly bulletins for shifts.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,712,175
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 34.5% for first, driven by NOAA's April 2026 ENSO update forecasting a 62% likelihood of El Niño emergence by June-August, which typically amplifies global surface air temperatures through enhanced Pacific heat release. Despite a strong but not record-breaking start—January through April 2026 ranking in the top five warmest for each month per Copernicus ERA5 data, with year-to-date fourth overall—persistent record-high ocean heat content and the ongoing anthropogenic warming trend position 2026 to potentially surpass 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest last year) but fall short of 2024's peak. Forecasts from NOAA and Berkeley Earth suggest top-five status is near-certain (98%+), though model uncertainty persists; watch May's ENSO diagnostic and monthly bulletins for shifts.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,712,175
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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