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Strait Of Hormuz predictions & odds

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

<1%

$37M Vol.

$2M today

$576K Liq.

3

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

15%

June 30

$41M Vol.

$1M today

$741K Liq.

387

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

7%

$5M Vol.

$818K today

$354K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

42%

May 31

$11M Vol.

$570K today

$306K Liq.

266

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

22%

$5M Vol.

$368K today

$306K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

48%

$2M Vol.

$357K today

$201K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

1%

Oil Sanction Relief

$4M Vol.

$173K today

$144K Liq.

143

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

1%

April 30

$3M Vol.

$108K today

$12.2K Liq.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

16%

May 31

$2M Vol.

$92.2K today

$56.0K Liq.

85

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

5%

$411K Vol.

$91.8K today

$43.6K Liq.

34

Ends in about 1 month

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

62%

25-49

$45.8K Vol.

$100K Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

18%

$47.4K Vol.

$64.9K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

1%

40+

$1M Vol.

$34.0K Liq.

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

1%

April 30

$4M Vol.

$29.9K Liq.

174

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

1%

$434K Vol.

$14.8K Liq.

52

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

<1%

United Kingdom

$3M Vol.

$72.2K Liq.

143

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

25%

Oil Sanction Relief

$38.3K Vol.

$120K Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

98%

0-10

$231K Vol.

$57.0K Liq.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

78%

20+

$3.5K Vol.

$19.5K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

2%

$3.8K Vol.

$2.0K Liq.

1

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Strait Of Hormuz that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $118.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 14% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Strait Of Hormuz predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.