Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—led by a 21% gasoline spike from geopolitical tensions—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and tempering rate-cut bets. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized data-dependent patience, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool odds near 97%. Softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or nonfarm payrolls could challenge this positioning by reviving easing expectations, though current dynamics favor status quo.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April meeting, with market pricing showing 100% probability of no change and very low confidence in a June hike of 50+ bps;
50+ bps increase dips to 0%1%
resilient economic data and Fed patience cited as reasons
Continued inflation above target and resilient labor market reduce odds of rate cuts
No change rises to 96%3%
Persistent inflation and steady employment data through April solidified market belief that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting.
to 30] Continued steady inflation and labor market data, combined with Fed communications maintaining a cautious stance, push the probability of a 25 bps increase down to near 1%
25 bps increase dips to 1%1%
to 30] Continued steady inflation and labor market data, combined with Fed communications maintaining a cautious stance, push the probability of a 25 bps increase down to near 1% ahead of the June meeting
March 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.3% YoY, the highest since May 2024, but labor market remains robust;
despite sticky inflation, market pricing and Fed communications maintain low probability of a 50+ bps hike in June
Continued market decline in 25 bps cut probability as inflation remains above target and labor market data show resilience, reducing expectations for rate cuts in mid-2026 .
25 bps decrease dips to 8%4%
Continued market decline in 25 bps cut probability as inflation remains above target and labor market data show resilience, reducing expectations for rate cuts in mid-2026 .
Sharp market reassessment following economic data and Fed communications indicating a reduced likelihood of a 25 bps cut by June, with markets reacting to signs of economic
25 bps decrease plunges to 12%18%
Sharp market reassessment following economic data and Fed communications indicating a reduced likelihood of a 25 bps cut by June, with markets reacting to signs of economic stabilization and less urgency for easing .
Fed Chair Powell signals uncertainty on further cuts, emphasizing data dependency
No change surges to 74%19%
Powell's remarks about the need for more data before deciding on rate cuts increased market confidence in a pause, causing a significant jump in the "No change".
Temporary market optimism on possible Fed tightening due to some stronger economic data causes a brief
25 bps increase rises to 4%3%
to 08] Temporary market optimism on possible Fed tightening due to some stronger economic data causes a brief
Labor market data confirms resilience, supporting Fed's cautious approach
No change jumps to 64%12%
Strong employment figures and moderate unemployment growth reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain rates, boosting the "No change" probability.
January CPI report shows softer headline inflation but steady core inflation
No change jumps to 37%6%
Mixed inflation data with cooler headline CPI but steady core inflation led to uncertainty, causing some market swings but overall supporting the possibility of no rate change.
to 06] Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials emphasize data dependency and caution on future rate moves, with no clear signals for hikes, contributing to a trough in market
25 bps increase dips to 1%1%
to 06] Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials emphasize data dependency and caution on future rate moves, with no clear signals for hikes, contributing to a trough in market pricing for a 25 bps increase
December 2025 Producer
No change rises to 48%3%
A sharp rise in wholesale inflation raised doubts about near-term rate cuts, pushing markets to.
Release of December FOMC minutes reveals divisions among Fed officials on timing and extent of future rate cuts
50+ bps decrease dips to 7%1%
Minutes showed a split between officials favoring further cuts if inflation slows and others advocating patience due to persistent inflation risks. This internal uncertainty contributed to reduced market odds for large rate cuts by mid-2026.
Federal Reserve expected to leave interest rates unchanged at January meeting amid mixed labor market data and steady inflation, further dampening market expectations for a June
25 bps increase dips to 2%1%
Federal Reserve expected to leave interest rates unchanged at January meeting amid mixed labor market data and steady inflation, further dampening market expectations for a June rate hike
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting, signaling data-dependent approach
50+ bps decrease dips to 8%2%
The Fed maintained rates unchanged, citing signs of labor market stabilization and a cautious stance amid inflation still above target. Two dissenters favored a cut, but the majority preferred to wait for clearer data, reinforcing market views that large cuts were unlikely soon.
December 2025 inflation data confirms inflation has likely peaked and is expected to decline in 2026, supporting Fed's stance to hold or cut rates modestly rather than hike;
50+ bps increase dips to 1%2%
economists expect disinflationary trends to continue
Release of Fed meeting minutes reveals division among FOMC members over the necessity of rate cuts, with some dissenting votes and concerns that inflation must decline further
25 bps decrease drops to 28%10%
Release of Fed meeting minutes reveals division among FOMC members over the necessity of rate cuts, with some dissenting votes and concerns that inflation must decline further before additional cuts, causing market pullback in 25 bps cut probability .
FOMC minutes reveal Fed's cautious stance and divided opinions on December rate cut
No change rises to 45%1%
Minutes showed some Fed officials favored holding rates steady due to persistent inflation and labor market concerns, reinforcing market expectations of no immediate change.
Fed minutes reveal a divided committee with most officials expecting one more rate cut in 2026 and no hikes, emphasizing inflation progress has stalled and uncertainty remains;
50+ bps increase dips to 3%1%
dissenters favor no change or larger cuts but no indication of rate hikes
US November CPI misses expectations at 2.7%, fueling hopes for Fed pause
No change rises to 44%1%
The cooler-than-expected inflation report supported the case for the Fed to hold rates steady, increasing market confidence in a pause rather than a cut at the December meeting.
Federal Reserve signals likely pause on further rate cuts in 2026 amid data uncertainty and leadership transition
50+ bps decrease dips to 10%2%
Following the December cut, the Fed indicated it would likely hold rates steady in the near term due to persistent inflation and unclear economic data caused by a recent government shutdown. The Fed's updated projections showed many policymakers expecting no further cuts in 2026, dampening market expectations for aggressive easing.
Federal Reserve faces divided views ahead of December meeting amid government data delays
No change drops to 43%14%
The Fed's internal disagreement and delayed economic data due to the government shutdown created uncertainty about a December rate cut, leading markets to reduce odds of "No change" as some members pushed for cuts while others urged caution.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 amid rising unemployment and weak hiring, but with a divided committee and
25 bps decrease drops to 38%12%
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 amid rising unemployment and weak hiring, but with a divided committee and mixed economic signals, leading markets to.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025 amid mixed economic signals
50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%
The Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting concerns about a cooling labor market and persistent inflation slightly above target. The decision was made with a 9-3 vote, highlighting internal divisions and signaling a cautious easing path. This confirmed market expectations for easing but also introduced uncertainty about future cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points but signals pause on further cuts and no hikes ahead, citing somewhat elevated inflation and a softening labor market;
50+ bps increase drops to 4%6%
median Fed projection shows only one more cut in 2026 with no hikes expected
to 10] Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut amid economic slowdown and inflation concerns, signaling a dovish stance that
25 bps increase dips to 5%1%
to 10] Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut amid economic slowdown and inflation concerns, signaling a dovish stance that lowers market expectations for a June 2026 rate hike
Release of October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Release of October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Weak U.S. private payrolls data for November intensifies market expectations for a December Fed rate cut, boosting the probability of easing monetary policy and reducing chances
25 bps increase plunges to 6%19%
Weak U.S. private payrolls data for November intensifies market expectations for a December Fed rate cut, boosting the probability of easing monetary policy and reducing chances of a rate hike in 2026
Fed President John Williams signals "near-term" rate cuts possible but emphasizes data dependency and inflation concerns
50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%
Williams' comments raised early market expectations for imminent easing, supporting initial.
Signs point toward a 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting as job openings drop to their lowest since January 2021 and inflation steadily declines, increasing market
25 bps decrease jumps to 50%6%
Signs point toward a 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting as job openings drop to their lowest since January 2021 and inflation steadily declines, increasing market expectations for easing .
Federal Reserve reduces rates by another 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% despite a prolonged government shutdown and limited economic data, reinforcing the easing trend and
25 bps decrease rises to 44%3%
Federal Reserve reduces rates by another 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% despite a prolonged government shutdown and limited economic data, reinforcing the easing trend and boosting market confidence in further cuts .
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, citing labor market concerns and signaling potential further easing later in 2025.
25 bps decrease drops to 41%9%
This first cut of 2025 raised market expectations for additional cuts, supporting the initial higher probability for a 25 bps decrease in June 2026 .
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