Trader consensus reflects a 68% implied probability of no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, driven by the absence of major diplomatic escalations despite bilateral frictions. In March 2026, South African opposition parties like the EFF and MK Party called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his remarks dismissing a local court ruling on a controversial chant, but President Ramaphosa's government took no action, instead appointing a new envoy to Washington on April 15 amid ongoing tensions stemming from the U.S. expulsion of South Africa's ambassador in 2025. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. diplomats elicited no verified retaliatory expulsions, underscoring restraint in key relationships. With eight months remaining, diplomatic norms and lack of acute crises—such as military conflicts or severe sanctions disputes—bolster the "No" positioning, though flashpoints like U.S.-South Africa ties or Iran rhetoric could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$14,605 Обс.
$14,605 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,605 Обс.
$14,605 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 68% implied probability of no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, driven by the absence of major diplomatic escalations despite bilateral frictions. In March 2026, South African opposition parties like the EFF and MK Party called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his remarks dismissing a local court ruling on a controversial chant, but President Ramaphosa's government took no action, instead appointing a new envoy to Washington on April 15 amid ongoing tensions stemming from the U.S. expulsion of South Africa's ambassador in 2025. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. diplomats elicited no verified retaliatory expulsions, underscoring restraint in key relationships. With eight months remaining, diplomatic norms and lack of acute crises—such as military conflicts or severe sanctions disputes—bolster the "No" positioning, though flashpoints like U.S.-South Africa ties or Iran rhetoric could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,605Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 68% implied probability of no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, driven by the absence of major diplomatic escalations despite bilateral frictions. In March 2026, South African opposition parties like the EFF and MK Party called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his remarks dismissing a local court ruling on a controversial chant, but President Ramaphosa's government took no action, instead appointing a new envoy to Washington on April 15 amid ongoing tensions stemming from the U.S. expulsion of South Africa's ambassador in 2025. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. diplomats elicited no verified retaliatory expulsions, underscoring restraint in key relationships. With eight months remaining, diplomatic norms and lack of acute crises—such as military conflicts or severe sanctions disputes—bolster the "No" positioning, though flashpoints like U.S.-South Africa ties or Iran rhetoric could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$14,605Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 68% implied probability of no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, driven by the absence of major diplomatic escalations despite bilateral frictions. In March 2026, South African opposition parties like the EFF and MK Party called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his remarks dismissing a local court ruling on a controversial chant, but President Ramaphosa's government took no action, instead appointing a new envoy to Washington on April 15 amid ongoing tensions stemming from the U.S. expulsion of South Africa's ambassador in 2025. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. diplomats elicited no verified retaliatory expulsions, underscoring restraint in key relationships. With eight months remaining, diplomatic norms and lack of acute crises—such as military conflicts or severe sanctions disputes—bolster the "No" positioning, though flashpoints like U.S.-South Africa ties or Iran rhetoric could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання