Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability for 25-49 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, 2026, reflecting sustained U.S. naval blockade enforcement and Iranian IRGC selective permitting amid the ongoing 2026 Iran conflict, which has reduced daily averages to 7-13 vessels—95% below pre-war norms of 130+. Recent developments, including a prior week's 35 confirmed transits (April 20-26 per Windward data) and April 28-29 upticks to 13-20 amid nascent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions, underpin this positioning, while spikes like April 18's 47 vessels during brief openings highlight volatility. No de-escalation signals ahead of May 3 resolution per IMF Portwatch data temper higher bins at 27.5% for 50-74, with energy supply risks elevating Brent crude amid 20% global shortfalls.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?
25-49 59%
50-74 28%
75-99 7.4%
<25 6%
$48,047 KL.
$48,047 KL.
May 3, 2026
<25
6%
25-49
59%
50-74
28%
75-99
7%
100-124
<1%
125-149
<1%
150+
<1%
25-49 59%
50-74 28%
75-99 7.4%
<25 6%
$48,047 KL.
$48,047 KL.
May 3, 2026
<25
$4,843 KL.
6%
25-49
$17,753 KL.
59%
50-74
$8,393 KL.
28%
75-99
$1,608 KL.
7%
100-124
$5,339 KL.
<1%
125-149
$5,434 KL.
<1%
150+
$4,677 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability for 25-49 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, 2026, reflecting sustained U.S. naval blockade enforcement and Iranian IRGC selective permitting amid the ongoing 2026 Iran conflict, which has reduced daily averages to 7-13 vessels—95% below pre-war norms of 130+. Recent developments, including a prior week's 35 confirmed transits (April 20-26 per Windward data) and April 28-29 upticks to 13-20 amid nascent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions, underpin this positioning, while spikes like April 18's 47 vessels during brief openings highlight volatility. No de-escalation signals ahead of May 3 resolution per IMF Portwatch data temper higher bins at 27.5% for 50-74, with energy supply risks elevating Brent crude amid 20% global shortfalls.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$48,047Ngày kết thúc
May 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability for 25-49 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, 2026, reflecting sustained U.S. naval blockade enforcement and Iranian IRGC selective permitting amid the ongoing 2026 Iran conflict, which has reduced daily averages to 7-13 vessels—95% below pre-war norms of 130+. Recent developments, including a prior week's 35 confirmed transits (April 20-26 per Windward data) and April 28-29 upticks to 13-20 amid nascent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions, underpin this positioning, while spikes like April 18's 47 vessels during brief openings highlight volatility. No de-escalation signals ahead of May 3 resolution per IMF Portwatch data temper higher bins at 27.5% for 50-74, with energy supply risks elevating Brent crude amid 20% global shortfalls.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$48,047Ngày kết thúc
May 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59% implied probability for 25-49 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, 2026, reflecting sustained U.S. naval blockade enforcement and Iranian IRGC selective permitting amid the ongoing 2026 Iran conflict, which has reduced daily averages to 7-13 vessels—95% below pre-war norms of 130+. Recent developments, including a prior week's 35 confirmed transits (April 20-26 per Windward data) and April 28-29 upticks to 13-20 amid nascent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions, underpin this positioning, while spikes like April 18's 47 vessels during brief openings highlight volatility. No de-escalation signals ahead of May 3 resolution per IMF Portwatch data temper higher bins at 27.5% for 50-74, with energy supply risks elevating Brent crude amid 20% global shortfalls.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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