Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "Yes" at 55%, reflecting the absence of any specified triggers through April—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, or Russia entering a NATO country—despite heightened U.S.-Iran tensions from Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz and special forces operations that fell short of full-scale invasion. Geopolitical stability persists in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait, with no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, stable Bitcoin prices away from $1M or $10k extremes, and no major natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanoes. However, the November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside black-swan potentials like earthquakes or Epstein revelations, keeping the outcome closely contested.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
Có
$515,821 KL.
$515,821 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$515,821 KL.
$515,821 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "Yes" at 55%, reflecting the absence of any specified triggers through April—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, or Russia entering a NATO country—despite heightened U.S.-Iran tensions from Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz and special forces operations that fell short of full-scale invasion. Geopolitical stability persists in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait, with no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, stable Bitcoin prices away from $1M or $10k extremes, and no major natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanoes. However, the November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside black-swan potentials like earthquakes or Epstein revelations, keeping the outcome closely contested.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$515,821Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "Yes" at 55%, reflecting the absence of any specified triggers through April—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, or Russia entering a NATO country—despite heightened U.S.-Iran tensions from Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz and special forces operations that fell short of full-scale invasion. Geopolitical stability persists in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait, with no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, stable Bitcoin prices away from $1M or $10k extremes, and no major natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanoes. However, the November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside black-swan potentials like earthquakes or Epstein revelations, keeping the outcome closely contested.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$515,821Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "Yes" at 55%, reflecting the absence of any specified triggers through April—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, China invading Taiwan, or Russia entering a NATO country—despite heightened U.S.-Iran tensions from Trump ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz and special forces operations that fell short of full-scale invasion. Geopolitical stability persists in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait, with no regime changes for Xi Jinping or Iran, stable Bitcoin prices away from $1M or $10k extremes, and no major natural disasters like VEI 6+ volcanoes. However, the November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside black-swan potentials like earthquakes or Epstein revelations, keeping the outcome closely contested.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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