Trader sentiment on whether 40+ commercial ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 reflects deep skepticism amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis, with daily transits collapsing to 6-9 vessels—mostly Iran-linked—from a pre-conflict average of ~100, per Reuters and CNN tracking as of April 29. US blockades of Iranian ports since mid-April, coupled with Iran's seizures of foreign vessels and attacks on neutral shipping, have halted normal traffic, spiking Brent crude above $110 per barrel and inflating war-risk insurance premiums that deter operators. This disrupts ~20 million barrels per day of global oil and LNG flows, pressuring energy markets and supply chains. Resolution awaits final IMF Portwatch data today; US plans for a maritime freedom coalition signal no imminent normalization without diplomatic progress.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCác tàu __ có đi qua Eo biển Hormuz vào bất kỳ ngày nào vào cuối tháng 4 không?
Các tàu __ có đi qua Eo biển Hormuz vào bất kỳ ngày nào vào cuối tháng 4 không?
$1,460,246 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
40+
<1%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
$1,460,246 KL.
40+
$286,491 KL.
<1%
60+
$310,625 KL.
<1%
80+
$411,576 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on whether 40+ commercial ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 reflects deep skepticism amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis, with daily transits collapsing to 6-9 vessels—mostly Iran-linked—from a pre-conflict average of ~100, per Reuters and CNN tracking as of April 29. US blockades of Iranian ports since mid-April, coupled with Iran's seizures of foreign vessels and attacks on neutral shipping, have halted normal traffic, spiking Brent crude above $110 per barrel and inflating war-risk insurance premiums that deter operators. This disrupts ~20 million barrels per day of global oil and LNG flows, pressuring energy markets and supply chains. Resolution awaits final IMF Portwatch data today; US plans for a maritime freedom coalition signal no imminent normalization without diplomatic progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,460,246Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on whether 40+ commercial ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 reflects deep skepticism amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis, with daily transits collapsing to 6-9 vessels—mostly Iran-linked—from a pre-conflict average of ~100, per Reuters and CNN tracking as of April 29. US blockades of Iranian ports since mid-April, coupled with Iran's seizures of foreign vessels and attacks on neutral shipping, have halted normal traffic, spiking Brent crude above $110 per barrel and inflating war-risk insurance premiums that deter operators. This disrupts ~20 million barrels per day of global oil and LNG flows, pressuring energy markets and supply chains. Resolution awaits final IMF Portwatch data today; US plans for a maritime freedom coalition signal no imminent normalization without diplomatic progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$1,460,246Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on whether 40+ commercial ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 reflects deep skepticism amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis, with daily transits collapsing to 6-9 vessels—mostly Iran-linked—from a pre-conflict average of ~100, per Reuters and CNN tracking as of April 29. US blockades of Iranian ports since mid-April, coupled with Iran's seizures of foreign vessels and attacks on neutral shipping, have halted normal traffic, spiking Brent crude above $110 per barrel and inflating war-risk insurance premiums that deter operators. This disrupts ~20 million barrels per day of global oil and LNG flows, pressuring energy markets and supply chains. Resolution awaits final IMF Portwatch data today; US plans for a maritime freedom coalition signal no imminent normalization without diplomatic progress.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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