Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 33.5%, reflecting the absence of boots-on-the-ground operations despite the largest Middle East military buildup since 2003. Recent April ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12, with Iran rejecting proposals on April 6, yet President Trump has pushed for extensions tied to nuclear concessions and waterway access, prioritizing air campaigns that have degraded Iranian missiles and oil exports without occupation risks. Pentagon plans for targeted Hormuz strikes emerged April 23 if diplomacy fails, but historical aversion to prolonged ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan underpins the market's skepticism of full escalation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডমার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্র কি ২০২৭ সালের আগে ইরান আক্রমণ করবে?
মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্র কি ২০২৭ সালের আগে ইরান আক্রমণ করবে?
হ্যাঁ
$18,946,067 Vol.
$18,946,067 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$18,946,067 Vol.
$18,946,067 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 33.5%, reflecting the absence of boots-on-the-ground operations despite the largest Middle East military buildup since 2003. Recent April ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12, with Iran rejecting proposals on April 6, yet President Trump has pushed for extensions tied to nuclear concessions and waterway access, prioritizing air campaigns that have degraded Iranian missiles and oil exports without occupation risks. Pentagon plans for targeted Hormuz strikes emerged April 23 if diplomacy fails, but historical aversion to prolonged ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan underpins the market's skepticism of full escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
ভলিউম
$18,946,067শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 33.5%, reflecting the absence of boots-on-the-ground operations despite the largest Middle East military buildup since 2003. Recent April ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12, with Iran rejecting proposals on April 6, yet President Trump has pushed for extensions tied to nuclear concessions and waterway access, prioritizing air campaigns that have degraded Iranian missiles and oil exports without occupation risks. Pentagon plans for targeted Hormuz strikes emerged April 23 if diplomacy fails, but historical aversion to prolonged ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan underpins the market's skepticism of full escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ভলিউম
$18,946,070শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel airstrikes and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 33.5%, reflecting the absence of boots-on-the-ground operations despite the largest Middle East military buildup since 2003. Recent April ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12, with Iran rejecting proposals on April 6, yet President Trump has pushed for extensions tied to nuclear concessions and waterway access, prioritizing air campaigns that have degraded Iranian missiles and oil exports without occupation risks. Pentagon plans for targeted Hormuz strikes emerged April 23 if diplomacy fails, but historical aversion to prolonged ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan underpins the market's skepticism of full escalation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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