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Politics·Remove

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

icon for Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?
Politics·Remove

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

6% chance
Polymarket

$88,586 Vol.

6% chance
Polymarket

$88,586 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expiring May 15—just two weeks away—traders price a 93.5% chance President Trump will not attempt to fire him prematurely before leaving office in 2029, reflecting legal barriers requiring "cause" beyond policy disputes and the advancement of nominee Kevin Warsh through Senate Banking Committee approval toward full confirmation. Recent April 15 threats targeted Powell staying on the Fed Board of Governors post-term (until 2028), not ousting him as Chair, amid a DOJ probe into Fed renovations that drew backlash but no removal action. Powell affirmed plans to remain a governor despite administration pressures, yet no executive order or formal process has materialized, underscoring trader consensus on institutional independence prevailing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$88,586
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expiring May 15—just two weeks away—traders price a 93.5% chance President Trump will not attempt to fire him prematurely before leaving office in 2029, reflecting legal barriers requiring "cause" beyond policy disputes and the advancement of nominee Kevin Warsh through Senate Banking Committee approval toward full confirmation. Recent April 15 threats targeted Powell staying on the Fed Board of Governors post-term (until 2028), not ousting him as Chair, amid a DOJ probe into Fed renovations that drew backlash but no removal action. Powell affirmed plans to remain a governor despite administration pressures, yet no executive order or formal process has materialized, underscoring trader consensus on institutional independence prevailing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$88,586
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 6% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 6¢, the market collectively assigns a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" has generated $88.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" is 6% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.