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Politics·Jerome Powell

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

icon for When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
Politics·Jerome Powell

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

May 15–22 94%

May 23–29 1.3%

Before May 15 <1%

After July 3 <1%

Polymarket

$71,584 Vol.

May 15–22 94%

May 23–29 1.3%

Before May 15 <1%

After July 3 <1%

Polymarket

$71,584 Vol.

Before May 15

$9,230 Vol.

1%

May 15–22

$27,325 Vol.

94%

May 23–29

$4,750 Vol.

1%

May 30–June 5

$4,453 Vol.

1%

June 6–12

$4,669 Vol.

<1%

June 13–19

$4,160 Vol.

<1%

June 20–26

$7,731 Vol.

<1%

June 27–July 3

$2,329 Vol.

<1%

After July 3

$6,936 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair officially ends May 15, 2026, driving trader consensus to 93% odds on his departure in the May 15–22 window after his April 29 press conference explicitly confirming he will step down as chair on that date while remaining a Board of Governors member amid Trump administration legal probes into the Fed. President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh advanced through the Senate Banking Committee the same day, paving the way for confirmation and transition. This commanding position reflects historical precedent where chairs exit at term end absent reappointment, with Powell's announcement resolving prior uncertainty from Trump's firing threats. Realistic challenges include Senate delays on Warsh forcing an acting chair extension or unforeseen legal rulings altering the timeline, though Powell affirmed no such intent.

This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.

The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.

This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.

All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$71,584
End Date
Jul 3, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair officially ends May 15, 2026, driving trader consensus to 93% odds on his departure in the May 15–22 window after his April 29 press conference explicitly confirming he will step down as chair on that date while remaining a Board of Governors member amid Trump administration legal probes into the Fed. President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh advanced through the Senate Banking Committee the same day, paving the way for confirmation and transition. This commanding position reflects historical precedent where chairs exit at term end absent reappointment, with Powell's announcement resolving prior uncertainty from Trump's firing threats. Realistic challenges include Senate delays on Warsh forcing an acting chair extension or unforeseen legal rulings altering the timeline, though Powell affirmed no such intent.

This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.

The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.

This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.

All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$71,584
End Date
Jul 3, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 15–22" at 94%, followed by "Before May 15" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?" has generated $71.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?" is "May 15–22" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Before May 15" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.