On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
President Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal on April 29 to first reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks has solidified the US naval blockade, now nearly three weeks old since its April 12 announcement amid the ongoing Iran war. White House signals indicate preparations for an extended operation until a comprehensive peace deal, with Defense Secretary Hegseth defending costs in congressional hearings amid rising oil prices near $120 per barrel. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an announcement lifting the blockade by May 31 at 58%, reflecting expectations of diplomatic pressure mounting from global energy disruptions, though near-term outcomes like April 30 (6%) or May 15 (34%) remain unlikely absent sudden de-escalation. Upcoming OPEC shifts and bilateral negotiations could influence timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Apr 29 2026
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
Apr 29 2026
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Apr 25 2026
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Apr 25 2026
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Apr 24 2026
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
Apr 23 2026
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
Apr 22 2026
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Apr 21 2026
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
Apr 20 2026
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
Apr 19 2026
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
Apr 19 2026
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
Apr 19 2026
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Apr 18 2026
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Apr 18 2026
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Apr 15 2026
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Apr 14 2026
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
Apr 13 2026
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
Apr 13 2026
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
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Câu hỏi thường gặp
"Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 12 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "31 tháng 5" ở mức 42%, tiếp theo là "May 22" ở mức 31%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 42¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 42% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.
Tính đến hôm nay, "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?" đã tạo $10.9 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Apr 12, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.
Để giao dịch trên "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?," duyệt 12 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.
Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?" là "31 tháng 5" ở mức 42%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 42% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "May 22" ở mức 31%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.
Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.
Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.
Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $10.9 million được giao dịch trên "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.
Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.
Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 42¢ cho "31 tháng 5" trong thị trường "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 42% khả năng "31 tháng 5" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 42¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 58¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.
Ngày kết thúc dự kiến của thị trường "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?" đã qua, nhưng thị trường chưa được giải quyết chính thức. Ngày kết thúc cho biết khi nào sự kiện cơ sở dự kiến xảy ra hoặc có thể biết được. Đó không phải lúc giao dịch dừng. Thị trường vẫn mở giao dịch cho đến khi kết quả được giải quyết chính thức qua quy trình giải quyết. Bạn vẫn có thể mua, bán hoặc đóng vị thế trong khi thị trường đang chờ giải quyết. Kiểm tra theo dõi trạng thái giải quyết và phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này để cập nhật.
Thị trường "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?" có cộng đồng sôi động với 266 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang đặt cược vào đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.
Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "Trump tuyên bố Mỹ phong tỏa Hormuz được dỡ bỏ bởi...?." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.
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